We'll see if the new online server can handle the load.
The new address for live games is live.advancednflstats.com. Share your thoughts on the (now automatically refreshing) chat/comment feature.
The new address for the mobile version is live.advancednflstats.com/WPmobileLive.php. It works on all web-accessible devices, including iPhones, Androids, and Blackberries. It's also a good substitute for any browser that doesn't play nice with Flash.
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As Carson says, Go Football!
Super Bowl Win Probability Graph
published on 2/06/2011
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Should the packers have gone for it on 4th down? The chances of coming from the 5 to get a FG couldn't be much better than scoring a TD after a KO, right?
Yes. They should have gone for it. Using the raw numbers from the WP calculator, I get these WP numbers:
Go for it and make it: 0.96
Go for it and miss: 0.88
Made field goal: 0.76 (!)
Eyeballing the 4th down average conversion rate graph gives a 0.36 percent chance to convert, so overall,
Go for it: 0.96*0.36 + 0.88*0.0.64 = 0.91
So going for it gives a 0.91 WP, while kicking gives a 0.76 WP.
According to the WP numbers, the Packers would have been better off taking a knee than attempting a field goal! Field position is one part of it, but the other important consideration is that NFL teams typically play for the tie down 3, whereas using all 4 downs to go for a touchdown down 4 or more. WP numbers for teams down 3 late in the game are actually lower than those for a team down 4 to 6 because of this.
Ryan- You are exactly right. That's just what I wrote about in my game write-up tonight. Crazy, isn't it?