Game Probabilities Week 6

Game probabilities for week 5 are up at the New York Times. This week I discuss the how teams with great offenses can mask the true strength of their defense.

Since the 2000 season, the 32 teams with the best offenses allowed 2.1 more Expect Points per game than the average team over the same period — a significant difference. This translates to about a 4 percent chance of winning a game when matched against a roughly equal opponent, and slightly less when matched against a lesser opponent.
By the way, I gooned up the table on the post, leaving out Monday night's game. It's .57 - .43 IND over SD.

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8 Responses to “Game Probabilities Week 6”

  1. JoelW says:

    Did you look the other way? Do the teams with the very worst Defenses have systematically overrated offenses? I would guess yes, as they're constantly playing against prevent defenses.

  2. Anonymous says:

    1) is the bronco's WP a record? All i've heard is how the point spread on the game is a record high over the last ~10,000 games

    2) how about looking at the D in the first half, where the great offenses are not coasting to a victory and their defenses going into "prevent" mode?

  3. EpicWestern says:

    I've been messing around with a little code to compare expert picks with betting lines. The idea is to detect when an expert pick differs from the betting line pick, and then see what would happen if a $100 bet were made on that pick. Small sample size, but so far you're system is doing pretty well.
    Week 5 differing picks:
    Patriots(-140) at Bengals(+127)
    Lions(+381) at Packers(-445)
    Seahawks(-144) at Colts(+130)
    Chiefs(-130) at Titans(+110)
    Panthers(-160) at Cardinals(+135)
    Texans(+188) at 49ers(-220)
    Results on differing picks:
    Bengals WIN profit on $100 bet: 127.0
    Lions LOSE profit on $100 bet: -100.0
    Colts WIN profit on $100 bet: 130.0
    Titans LOSE profit on $100 bet: -100.0
    Cardinals WIN profit on $100 bet: 135.0
    Texans LOSE profit on $100 bet: -100.0
    Total weeks winnings: $92
    Week 4 differing picks:
    Ravens(-160) at Bills(+135)
    Bengals(-200) at Browns(+170)
    Jets(+185) at Titans(-225)
    Redskins(-172) at Raiders(+152)
    Results on differing picks:
    Bills WIN profit on $100 bet: 135.0
    Browns WIN profit on $100 bet: 170.0
    Jets LOSE profit on $100 bet: -100.0
    Raiders LOSE profit on $100 bet: -100.0
    Total weeks winnings: $105

  4. EpicWestern says:

    Sportsbooks have pats either as a slight favorite over the saints or as an even game, which baffles me. So that's the only differing pick for week 6.

  5. mitch says:

    The Saints are playing way over their heads and are due for a regression to the mean.

    The books know this as do the Sharps, those are the guys looking to throw big money down on the Pats because of regression.

    This is why the book needs to shade the number to the Pats.

    The squares don't understand regression and think wow, look at that number, it's a easy win on the Saints. The squares assume that a team can continue playing on a high level game after game which is not true.

    The one fault I've found with many of the sites make is they don't understand the degree regression is coming for a team.

    According to GWP the Saints would be -3 over Pats.

    Saints are due a huge regression, it's coming, could be this week or next but it's coming to a football field very soon.

  6. Boston Chris says:

    @Mitch, I don't that word (regression) means what you think it means....

    just saying.

  7. Anonymous says:

    Well I guess that STL/HOU game probability had a few missing assumptions....

  8. mitch says:

    The only road team to lose in the model this week over over 60% was the Saints. The model just does not account for such large amounts of regression.

    But then again, large regressions affect just a few teams each week.

    Jets and Texans both lost over 60% at home.

    Speaking of the Texans, a huge regression is coming next week, and a regression is coming for their opponent, KC, ride the Texans next week.

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