The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.
Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.
GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.
Click on the table headers to sort:
| RANK | TEAM | LAST WK | GWP | Opp GWP | O RANK | D RANK |
| 1 |  NO | 2 | 0.85 | 0.44 | 1 | 11 |
| 2 |  IND | 1 | 0.79 | 0.48 | 6 | 4 |
| 3 |  SD | 4 | 0.74 | 0.48 | 3 | 17 |
| 4 |  PIT | 5 | 0.71 | 0.48 | 8 | 6 |
| 5 |  PHI | 6 | 0.70 | 0.48 | 12 | 3 |
| 6 |  NE | 3 | 0.70 | 0.55 | 5 | 20 |
| 7 |  DAL | 8 | 0.69 | 0.45 | 2 | 21 |
| 8 |  MIN | 9 | 0.69 | 0.41 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 |  DEN | 10 | 0.69 | 0.57 | 14 | 2 |
| 10 |  NYG | 7 | 0.66 | 0.52 | 9 | 8 |
| 11 |  GB | 12 | 0.65 | 0.40 | 10 | 5 |
| 12 |  BAL | 13 | 0.62 | 0.54 | 11 | 10 |
| 13 |  CIN | 11 | 0.58 | 0.49 | 17 | 7 |
| 14 |  NYJ | 15 | 0.58 | 0.50 | 24 | 1 |
| 15 |  HOU | 14 | 0.56 | 0.52 | 7 | 24 |
| 16 |  TEN | 19 | 0.51 | 0.56 | 16 | 19 |
| 17 |  WAS | 17 | 0.49 | 0.46 | 19 | 13 |
| 18 |  JAC | 20 | 0.47 | 0.46 | 13 | 28 |
| 19 |  ARI | 16 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 15 | 22 |
| 20 |  SF | 21 | 0.42 | 0.50 | 23 | 9 |
| 21 |  BUF | 26 | 0.40 | 0.47 | 26 | 14 |
| 22 |  ATL | 18 | 0.37 | 0.50 | 18 | 30 |
| 23 |  CHI | 23 | 0.37 | 0.48 | 20 | 18 |
| 24 |  SEA | 25 | 0.36 | 0.46 | 25 | 15 |
| 25 |  CAR | 22 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 27 | 12 |
| 26 |  MIA | 24 | 0.36 | 0.55 | 21 | 25 |
| 27 |  TB | 29 | 0.27 | 0.57 | 29 | 23 |
| 28 |  STL | 27 | 0.26 | 0.52 | 22 | 27 |
| 29 |  KC | 28 | 0.22 | 0.56 | 30 | 31 |
| 30 |  OAK | 30 | 0.18 | 0.58 | 31 | 26 |
| 31 |  DET | 31 | 0.17 | 0.53 | 28 | 32 |
| 32 |  CLE | 32 | 0.13 | 0.55 | 32 | 29 |
| TEAM | OPASS | ORUN | OINT% | OFUM% | DPASS | DRUN | DINT% | PENRATE |
| ARI | 6.5 | 4.1 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 0.43 |
| ATL | 6.0 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 7.0 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.33 |
| BAL | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 0.54 |
| BUF | 5.5 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 5.7 | 0.42 |
| CAR | 5.2 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 5.8 | 4.5 | 3.8 | 0.34 |
| CHI | 5.9 | 4.0 | 4.9 | 1.2 | 6.0 | 4.3 | 2.7 | 0.45 |
| CIN | 6.1 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 5.6 | 3.8 | 3.0 | 0.41 |
| CLE | 4.1 | 3.6 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.35 |
| DAL | 7.3 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.47 |
| DEN | 6.1 | 4.2 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 5.5 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.37 |
| DET | 5.1 | 3.9 | 5.2 | 0.9 | 7.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.42 |
| GB | 6.8 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 0.53 |
| HOU | 7.3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 6.2 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 0.50 |
| IND | 7.7 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 3.1 | 0.30 |
| JAC | 6.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 0.32 |
| KC | 4.9 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 7.5 | 4.3 | 1.9 | 0.32 |
| MIA | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 6.7 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 0.34 |
| MIN | 7.2 | 4.3 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 0.36 |
| NE | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 6.3 | 4.4 | 3.8 | 0.37 |
| NO | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 0.38 |
| NYG | 6.9 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 0.44 |
| NYJ | 5.9 | 4.6 | 6.3 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 0.33 |
| OAK | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 7.0 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.38 |
| PHI | 6.5 | 4.6 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 5.3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 0.47 |
| PIT | 7.0 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.40 |
| SD | 7.6 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.2 | 5.7 | 4.3 | 3.1 | 0.33 |
| SF | 5.3 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 6.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 0.38 |
| SEA | 5.6 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 6.1 | 4.3 | 2.5 | 0.39 |
| STL | 5.2 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 6.9 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.42 |
| TB | 5.1 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 3.8 | 0.36 |
| TEN | 5.9 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 0.39 |
| WAS | 6.0 | 4.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 0.39 |
| Avg | 6.1 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 6.2 | 4.2 | 3.0 | 0.39 |
Is Opp GWP the *past* opponent's generic win probability or future opponents?
May have been asked already.
There has been discussion of updated coefficients for the 2009 season. How might they differ from the coefficients listed in the October 2007 article and the game model explained (Part I) from this past January?
The oFumble Rate is different than last year - much lower. Does it now only include fumbles lost while on off / (rush plays + pass att + sacks) ? I take it previous year's oFumble Rate included total fumbles while on offense.
Thank you.
Past opponents.
The fumbles this year are only rushing fumbles. It's something I didn't originally intend to do, but I'm sticking with it for the rest of the year and it seems to be working well.
Just wanted to say your picks are doing pretty good for the year. Not sure how they compare to the spread but I have been using them as my #1 source for predictions in a pickem pool where we pick straight up winners. Obviously diversification is key in a large pool like that so when your odds of winning are significantly different from the way the rest of the pool is picking I go against it (along with by own thoughts).
So far 2nd place 1 game out of first with 3 weekly wins out of a pool of 25 people. Not bad at all!
HBy using only rushing fumbles, does this change the model's coeffieient & by how much?
Yes, it changes the coefficient for fumbles. I don't have the numbers with me, sorry.
With Indianapolis expected to rest their starters later in the season, how will putting in basically a whole new team affect their efficiency ratings and their win probabilities. Obviously you can't use their previous success to predict how the cheerleaders will do when they get in the game. Will the model restart basically and push the Colt's efficiency back towards the league average?