Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts.
The Ravens have further strengthened their position in the AFC, while the battle in the NFC continues to be a battle between the Giants and Cowboys. The Cowboys currently have the upper hand, but the Packers' loss last week has made them vulnerable. The Ravens' weekend was miraculous. They won, while the Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Broncos all lost. Except for the Steelers, who still only have a small chance of making the playoffs, every single other competitor for the AFC wildcard lost ground. The Ravens went from the 'outside looking in' to the #5 seed.
These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 MIA | 1 | 64 | 35 | 0 |
 NYJ | 0 | 35 | 65 | 0 |
 BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CIN | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 BAL | 3 | 89 | 7 | 0 |
 PIT | 0 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
 CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 IND | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JAC | 0 | 52 | 32 | 16 |
 TEN | 0 | 29 | 44 | 27 |
 HOU | 0 | 19 | 24 | 57 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SD | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 DEN | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 PHI | 60 | 40 | 0 | 0 |
 DAL | 40 | 21 | 39 | 0 |
 NYG | 0 | 39 | 61 | 0 |
 WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 MIN | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 GB | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
 CHI | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
 DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NO | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 ATL | 0 | 92 | 8 | 0 |
 CAR | 0 | 8 | 92 | 0 |
 TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ARI | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 SF | 0 | 100 | 0 | 0 |
 SEA | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
 STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| IND | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| SD | 0 | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NE | 0 | 2 | 70 | 26 | 0 | 0 | 99 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 27 | 70 | 0 | 1 | 98 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 54 | 20 | 77 |
| DEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 41 | 72 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 9 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 | 16 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 10 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 12 | 14 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| NO | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| MIN | 0 | 65 | 27 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| PHI | 0 | 25 | 33 | 1 | 20 | 20 | 100 |
| DAL | 0 | 5 | 21 | 14 | 1 | 21 | 62 |
| ARI | 0 | 3 | 19 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| GB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 61 | 26 | 87 |
| NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 18 | 33 | 51 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
