Fantasy Adds for Week Eleven

For the third week in a row, we offer this modest attempt at fantasy analysis.

This week offers two games, Kansas City at New England and Tampa Bay at Green Bay, with promising fantasy possibilities, as the favored team in both cases (the Patriots and Packers) also has a poor defense (26th and 28th, respectively, per GWP). As such, when the Chiefs and Bucs turn to the pass in low-WP situations, they're likely to be more efficient than we might otherwise expect.

I'd also like to make a note on the timing of this piece: a number of commenters have noted that Saturday might be too late in the week to take advantage of fantasy analysis. The results from a poll I ran last Sunday show that about 20% of readers need to make waiver-wire adds before Saturday. If possible, I'll attempt to run this closer to mid-week in the future; however, for the remaining 80% of readers, there's also some advantage to having all the information that a week of practice and reporting can provide.

Finally, don't hesitate to make comments below, or take time to point and laugh at last week's picks.

The weekly game probabilities suggest that Kansas City has only an 8% chance of beating New England -- nor does that even account for the fact that starting quarterback Matt Cassel will miss the game after undergoing hand surgery on Monday. However, with New England likely to take an early lead, Cassel's replacement Tyler Palko (5% owned) is likely to compile a pretty substantial number of pass attempts. The fact also remains that New England has the seventh-worst defensive GWP and allows the fifth-most net yards per pass attempt (7.3) in the league. Another option at QB is Philadelphia's Vince Young (6% owned), who'll be replacing the injured Michael Vick against the Giants. Young has the capacity to gain a fair number of rushing yards, which are generally worth more than the passing kind in fantasy football.

Running Back
As mentioned above, New England is likely to take a quick and commanding lead over the visiting the Kansas City Chiefs this Monday. With both BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Kevin Faulk both questionable, however, it's very possible that a large portion of the clock-killing will be left to Danny Woodhead (22% owned). Should both Green-Ellis and Faulk be ruled out ahead, rookie Steven Ridley (5%) could also see 5-10 touches -- although that's a riskier play. Elsewhere, Maurice Morris (44%) will once again take over the injured Jahvid Best's as lead back for Detroit in their game against Carolina this weekend, for which they're heavily favored (0.79 PROB).

Wide Receiver
Dexter McCluster (37% owned) ran the ball eight times and was also targeted for eight passes in Kansas City's Week Ten loss to Denver. That he's still available in under 50% of leagues is quite surprising. Wide receivers Steve Breaston (42%) and Jon Baldwin (15%) are also likely to receive plenty of targets.

Tight End
Kansas City rarely throws to their tight end, and Tampa Bay -- in a similar situation to KC against a heavily favored Green Bay team -- has a tight end in Kellen Winslow who's owned in about three-quarters of all leagues. Philadelphia, however, could find themselves passing against a not-excellent (19th by GWP) Giants defense, and tight end Brent Celek (36% owned) has averaged 8.5 targets per game over Philly's last four games.

St. Louis (10% owned) and Oakland (21%) have game probabilities of 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, against their Week Eleven opponents. Given that Oakland's projection doesn't account for recently installed starter Carson Palmer -- averaging a very competent 9.2 net yards per attempt (155 NY/A+) in a small sample -- it's likely their chances are even higher. Nor ought Minnesota's offense (ranked 25th per GWP) represent a particular threat -- with or without Christian Ponder.

A glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.

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7 Responses to “Fantasy Adds for Week Eleven”

  1. Juan Carlos says:

    I like the call on Oakland's Defense vs. Minnesota, and Woodhead has some upside, but its a very risky play with the game on monday night. Faulk/BJGE could heal. (unless you know something I don't know?)

    I liked Baldwin as a pickup a couple weeks ago, but does it really matter if he gets more targets? He's the 3rd WR option for TYLER PALKO. those aren't exactly high-quality looks. but KC will likely be down, and Palko should fail when in these obvious passing downs.

    Doing my own research, your WPA and EPA stats correlate much more with fantasy football. You should look into that.

  2. Chuck Winkler says:

    BJGE has been listed as questionable for 3 weeks in a row, and has played all of these games.

    With the the lead, the Patriots love to run Green-Ellis, so he's probably the big fantasy play there.

  3. Carson says:

    @Juan Carlos: You're right, of course, that it's unlikely that Palko will play excellently. What's more likely, however, is that he'll get enough pass attempts to mitigate any lack of efficiency. Furthermore, because the Chiefs hardly ever use the tight end, those pass attempts will likely be targeted at Bowe, Breaston, and Baldwin -- with McCluster serving as the wild card.

    @CW: I'm not denying that Green-Ellis could get his share of touches, but the idea here is to target likely-available (i.e. < 50% owned) options, and he's owned in 88% of Yahoo leagues. And actually, looking at the numbers, Woodhead has either equaled or surpassed G-E in terms of opportunities (defined as rush attempts plus pass targets) each of the past two weeks. Woodhead had 10 total last week, to G-E's 8. The week before, both had 13.

    Again, though, provided Green-Ellis is healthy, either should be a decent play.

  4. Juan Carlos says:

    Thanks for the reply.

    Do you have a few (under the radar) names that you're looking at today?

    And if you see this early enough, do you like Woodhead over Damian Williams (as a flex play)?

    You mentioned that Woodhead is quietly getting a higher number of touches, but Williams has gotten more looks also (17% target % in wk 9, 26% in wk 10). Williams could be up against Brent Grimes, so I'm at little afraid of going with that matchup.

  5. Carson says:

    @Juan Carlos: I like Woodhead in that instance, although either is a fine play.

    As for other names, I have none. I'd prefer to say too little in these matters than too much.

  6. Carson says:

    Egads, strange game for Damian Williams: 11 targets, 1 reception, 16 yards (1.5 YPT, 9.1% CR).

  7. Juan Carlos says:

    Agreed. Very weird, ugly, ugly stat line. As a fantasy owner, I want to just throw this one out since Hasselbeck was injured.

    I don't mean to completely let Williams off the hook, but this is an exception. QB change, plays change. I have to see the breakdown between Hasselbeck and Locker's passes, and which corner was covering him.

    There has to be a good explanation for this terrible showing.

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