The Giants Make Tom Brady Look Human


Tom Brady's Patriots may be a full six seasons removed from their last Super Bowl victory, but don't blame him. Since 2007, Brady has gone from great quarterback on a fantastic team to the engine which powers otherwise mediocre squads to division titles. Over the past four-and-a-half years -- 56 games due to Brady's 2008 injury, only the second year of his career in which the Patriots missed the postseason -- the former sixth-round pick has a shocking 132-to-33 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Brady has backed that up with a stellar 6.8 adjusted yards per attempt as well, a mark which would rank only behind Aaron Rodgers this season.

This is a particularly impressive performance given Tom Brady's age. In August, Brady turned 34, an age which usually signals the end of a career for many players, much less the beginning of a decline phase. Brady's age 34 season, though, has been far from a decline year. He ranks first in WPA, third in EPA per play, and fourth in adjusted yards per attempt so far through 2011.

Of course, the Giants are familiar with facing an on-point Tom Brady, and they were up to the challenge once again in Sunday's 24-20 victory at Foxboro. Despite a final-drive fueled 0.47 WPA, Brady wasn't the infallible field general we've grown accustomed to. Brady took two sacks, threw two interceptions, and finished with a mediocre 4.7 adjusted yards per attempt at the end of the day, clearly leaving points on the board and allowing Eli Manning the chance to win the game in the fourth quarter.


Obviously, the fault lies on more than just Brady. The run game failed to get going, with BenJarvus Green-Ellis, Danny Woodhead, and Stevan Ridley combining for a mere 0.6 EPA and a success rate around 40%. The defense allowed players like Victor Cruz (+3.0 EPA, 7.6 YPT) and Jake Ballard (+3.8 EPA, 9.6 YPT) to make a big impact, combining for +0.73 WPA. But such is the construction of this instance of Bill Belichick's Patriots: either Tom Brady wins it, or they lose it.

Despite spending much of the day slogging through his worst game of the season, Brady almost did win it -- credit the Patriots defense for keeping it close. But the second and third quarters in particular were very unlike Brady, as he spent much of the middle part of the game hurting the team instead of helping. Observe:



For ease of viewing, click here to see the visualization in its own page. You can click on the colors to highlight certain games, and you can mouse over each specific point on the lines to see the play in question.

Between his 17th and 32nd pass attempted, Brady's passes decreased the Patriots' expected points by a whopping 10. In what eventually amounted to a four point game -- more importantly, a one-possession game -- one could argue this cost the Patriots the game. Every opportunity to cut away at a 10-0 halftime lead was squandered until into the fourth quarter, where Brady's efforts eventually became too little, too late thanks to the heroics of Eli Manning and Jake Ballard.

With the Jets defeating the Bills on Sunday, the top three teams in the AFC East are separated by all of nothing. Between these three teams and the three teams heading the AFC North all competing for the two AFC wild card slots, chances are a third place finish in the East won't cut it. In every year he's been healthy, Tom Brady has led the Patriots to the playoffs. Even after this loss, there's no reason to start doubting him, but Week Nine made it painfully clear: without Brady at his best, the Patriots will not go far.

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12 Responses to “The Giants Make Tom Brady Look Human”

  1. Kstar says:

    Brady did not lead the Patriots to the playoffs in 2002. They have, however, finished at least tied for the best record in the AFC East every year since 2001.

  2. Ian B says:

    I have no idea what that graph is showing. I don't understand the title, I can't figure out what all those games are, or which one is the game this article is about... blech.

  3. Steve says:

    The Pats missed the playoffs in 2002. Sorry, just need to punch some more holes in the Brady myth.

    Also, in light of the Brady myth this article makes no sense--Brady has carried his team to 0 Super Bowls since 2007 but earlier in his career was carried to 3 SB titles. How can I reconcile that fact with the claim that Brady has improved?

  4. James says:

    Steve - Easy, the Patriot defense is much worse than it was in the early 00s.

    Ian - The top half of the graph is showing the total passing Expected Points Added after each passing play. For example, during the game represented by the light blue line the passing offense added about 7 points of EPA by the fifth passing play. The lower half of the graph is the same information but on a per play basis.

    That said, I agree that it is difficult to determine which game is which and a key would be very helpful here.

    It appears the red line represents the Giants game as it matches the description of dropping 10 EPA from plays 17 to 32, as it dropped from 0 EPA to approximately -11.

    Looking at the lines, I'd guess the light blue line is the Bills game as the large drops match the multiple interceptions Brady threw. The orange line is the Dolphins game as the large drop in the middle is Brady's interception after halftime, and the jump right at the end is the 99 yard TD pass to Welker.

    From there it seems like the lines are color-coded according to each opponent: yellow is the Chargers game, green for the Jets, dark blue is the Cowboys, black is the Steelers, and gray is the Raiders (it's not labeled victory or defeat, and it appears to end at play 36).

  5. Ian B says:

    James, thanks for helping to clarify. My first thought was maybe this was all the times that Brady had played against the Giants, given that the title of the article was about how the Giants have Brady's number.

    To the author, sorry if my comment seemed harsh. Everything always "sounds" worse when it's written down.

    I'd be curious to know which plays decreased Brady's EPA the most. Was it sacks from the Giant's vaunted d-line? Picks? Drops? Checkdowns the went nowhere?

  6. Jack Moore says:

    Ian -- no worries, I messed up.

    My bad on the graph being hard to read. Tableau's site wasn't working when I tried to upload the graph, and it slipped my mind to include the key when I tried to put the table in.

    I'll throw the full visualization up now, it should be much clearer.

  7. Jack Moore says:

    There... check that out. Should be much easier to read and much more telling.

  8. Brian Burke says:

    Really cool. I need to get smart on Tableau.

  9. Jim Glass says:

    Very nice graphs. But...

    Between his 17th and 32nd pass attempted, Brady's passes decreased the Patriots' expected points by a whopping 10. In what eventually amounted to a four point game ... one could argue this cost the Patriots the game...

    Brady almost did win it -- credit the Patriots defense for keeping it close. But the second and third quarters in particular were very unlike Brady, as he spent much of the middle part of the game hurting the team instead of helping.

    OK, the running game didn't get going -- but did any other players on the offense contribute to helping or hurting the Pats' passing game?

    When I read game analysis like this that is all QB, QB, QB, I can't help but recall the PFR.com analysis that attributes 28% of passing yards to the QB and wonder if I am missing 70% of the story.

    With the Jets defeating the Bills on Sunday, the top three teams in the AFC East are separated by all of one game.

    No, they are all tied.

  10. Jim Glass says:

    Brady has carried his team to 0 Super Bowls since 2007 but earlier in his career was carried to 3 SB titles. How can I reconcile that fact with the claim that Brady has improved?

    Brady "carried" the Pats to three SB titles with an average EPA rank of 13th (50.5) and EPA/P rank of 14th (0.093) in those years. (It seems to me that he was entirely human back then too.)

    He's on course to average 3 times as much EPA, 150, during 2009-2011. That certainly is consistent with his having improved significantly. But, of course, one must consider how much this increase in his numbers has resulted from change in the quality of his teammates and in the team's style of play.

    From 2006 to 2007 Brady's EPA rocketed up from 84.3 (9th) to 267.3 (1st, and 103 points ahead of #2!) while his EPA/P zoomed up from 0.14 (6th-7th) nearly tripling to 0.40 (1st, and far ahead of Peyton's #2 at only 0.29). One suspects that the bulk of that resulted from the arrival of Moss, Welker and Stalworth, rather than Brady suddenly getting so much dramatically better all by himself.

    Factiod: In 2008, with Moss, Welker, etc., Cassel (after not starting a game since high school) had EPA of 104.7 and EPA/P of 0.17, both significantly higher than Brady in 2006, pre-Moss and Welker. Though rookie Cassel was *hardly* a QB of Brady's quality. More evidence about the degree to which the QB's numbers are created by his teammates.

    Since 2007, Brady has gone from great quarterback on a fantastic team to the engine which powers otherwise mediocre squads to division titles.

    It is certainly true that pre-2007, and with the three SB winning teams, the Pats were a *good balanced team* with the Belichik D generally ahead of the offense, and the O being good enough. And since 2007 the Pats have become a throwing machine, with the rest of the team pretty much falling away.

    So yes, if Brady fails it's over for them. OTOH, how much of Brady's recent annual 150 EPA is due to him improving so much, and how much to Belichick converting the Pats to a throwing machine, is something of an open question. I'll buy that he's a good bit better than in his two-digit EPA years (SB titles notwithstanding -- teams win SBs) but I wouldn't say by how much.

  11. Steve Freeman says:

    The top three teams in the AFC East are NOT "separated by all of one game" -- they are tied. And also each 1-1 against each other.

  12. Steve Freeman says:

    i should have also added -- good article and good graphics.

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