Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I take a brief look at how eerily similar the Ravens and 49ers are statistically. It's almost like looking across the field at your own brother!
Weekly Game Probabilities
published on 11/23/2011
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So do we really believe Detroit has a .51 win probability? Betting lines have them at .28. That's a huge differential.
And the AdvancedNFLstat model ignores what seem to me to be some Detroit advantages:
1. Home field in a dome seems a greater advantage than in a typical outdoor field -- the noise disrupts visiting offenses (have you ever looked at this?)
2. Short week also makes for a greater than normal home field advantage -- travel eats into practice & prep time. (have you ever looked at this?)
3. GB injuries in key positions -- left tackle & running back.
btw: would you prefer we comment here or on the NYT blog?
Brian, with all the major injuries this week at QB and Fred Jackson, any way to use an individual player's WPA to adjust for an injury? I.E. factor in Jay Cutler's WPA loss to the win probability of Chicago for this week?
BTW I'm a big Packer fan and your model is telling me to go big on Detroit for the upset. I'm a data driven guy, but in this case I might not be able to overcome my heart!
Brian,
for the featured stats for the SF/Bal I get NetYPA for both teams at 6.0, from the following numbers:
Team PY Sacky PA (PY - Sacky) * 1.0 / PA
SF 1979 172 301 6.00
Bal 2604 134 412 5.995
Not a significate difference - maybe a typo?
John