Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

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7 Responses to “Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched”

  1. G Wolf says:

    Random question: how does CJ Spiller have a 0.17 WPA (good for 19th among RB), but with a -12.5 EPA (12th worst)?

    The only other example I could find of numbers close to those just from quickly skimming the list was Ben Tate (0.27, -8.9).

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Good question. I looked up his plays and it turns out Spiller had a large number of negative EPA plays in very low leverage situations. He has a net of -19 EPA when the WPA swings were only between -.01 and +.01.

  3. G Wolf says:

    So how do we interpret those two numbers next to each other? In other words, is it sort of like BABIP in baseball, where an artificially high/low number likely isn't sustainable?

  4. Brian Burke says:

    It will very probably regress. The way to really interpret them is that WPA is very heavily dependent on circumstance, most of which are non-repeating. EPA is less dependent on circumstance and is more consistent/predictable. Still, both are retrospective numbers that capture the past.

    If you're looking for predictive numbers, I would synthesize something between SR and EPA.

  5. G Wolf says:

    Gotcha. So EPA is probably more representative of his real contributions then, yes?

  6. Brian Burke says:

    I wouldn't say 'real' because EPA contains low-leverage 'trash' plays. But it's more stable from game to game and year to year.

  7. NateTG says:

    > If you're looking for predictive numbers, I would synthesize something
    > between SR and EPA.

    Do you know if anyone has looked at median EPA/P (or something similar) as a player stat?

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