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Brian - I know it said that DET had 1% chance of winning when they got the ball back. This made me curious, what were the other similar comebacks? I guess specifically I'm talking about 80 yards, 1 minute remaining, no timeouts, down by 6 points? And does your model treat 4-6 points the same in that situation or only 6?
Where does Johnson's 1.03 WPA rank on the all time list?
David-The 1% is actually on their 2nd to last possession, after DET failed to convert a 4th and 12. Their lowest point on the final drive (7%) was when Stafford spiked it on 1-10 at their own 37 with 42 sec left.
Johnson's WPA ranks 12th biggest since 1999 for all WRs. It wasn't even his best WPA day. He had a 1.19 WPA game vs OAK in 2011.
http://wp.advancednflstats.com/nflarchive.php?year=2011&team=DET&gameid=55382
Brian, I think Pryor's numbers may be off? Unless he had a crazy long sack or something, not sure how he's getting negative AYPA in a winning effort.
88 pass yds and 2 ints will do that, win or lose.
The AYPA I get, but how can his EPA and especially his WPA be so low? He had +0.2 WPA on the first play, and the WPA graph doesn't seem to move enough to have cancelled that out.