In the last two posts I compared the results of two regression models. The first model estimated current year wins based on current year stats. The second model predicted next year’s wins based on last year’s stats. The comparison of the regression results revealed how well various team stats persist from year to year as leading indicators of future team wins.
In this post, I'll apply the leading indicator model to each team's 2006 stats. This model accounts for only 20% of the variance in season win totals (compared to 75% for the standard current year model), but it does tell us which teams may have a "head start" due to their previous performance.
The strongest leading indicators were found to be offensive running efficiency (36%), team penalties (52%), and defensive forced fumble rate (45%). Offensive and defensive interception rates tend to be "anti-predictors" in that they are strong leading indicators, but good performance one year predicts fewer wins the next year.
Here is the list of each team's "leading indicator wins." These are win estimates above or below average calculated from the results of the leading indicator model.
| TEAM | Persisting Wins |
| DAL | 2.4 |
| MIA | 2.1 |
| DEN | 2.0 |
| CHI | 2.0 |
| PIT | 1.7 |
| KC | 1.6 |
| ATL | 1.6 |
| IND | 1.6 |
| SD | 1.4 |
| PHI | 1.2 |
| NO | 1.1 |
| SF | 0.8 |
| SEA | 0.7 |
| NYG | 0.5 |
| GB | 0.1 |
| STL | 0.0 |
| JAX | -0.2 |
| CIN | -0.3 |
| DET | -0.3 |
| NE | -0.5 |
| CAR | -0.5 |
| ARI | -0.5 |
| NYJ | -0.5 |
| TB | -0.6 |
| TEN | -0.6 |
| BUF | -0.8 |
| MIN | -0.9 |
| WAS | -1.0 |
| CLE | -1.1 |
| BAL | -1.2 |
| HOU | -1.4 |
| OAK | -2.4 |
The teams that fare well here are those that ran the ball well, committed few penalties, and forced a lot of fumbles. They also had poor interception rates on offense, defense, or both.
The only anomoly are the 13-win Ravens, who are buried among the league's worst teams. This is due to their phenomenal interception rates on both offense and defense in 2006. It will be very hard to repeat their 13 wins in 2007.
