The Best FG Kickers

Note: This analysis has been updated. New post can be found here.

Judging who the best field goal kickers are in the NFL is difficult. The kickers with the best range are often sent out to attempt impossibly long field goal tries. Some kickers benefit from circumstance in some years because their team's drives stall closer to the endzone than others.

Using data from the 2003-2006 regular seasons, obtained at profootballweekly.com, I may have a stumbled on a novel approach to solve the problem. My intent was to follow up on an earlier article that suggested that field goal kickers were severely underpaid relative to their impact on winning. A couple of readers (correctly) pointed out that some kickers' performances appear inflated due to luck, so the "best" kicker one year may really only be an average kicker who got lucky. In attempting to isolate the true talent level from other circumstances, including luck, involved in kicking performance, I developed the following approach.

For each kicker from '03-'06, I computed an expected percentage of FGs made based on three kicker stats:

1. Average FG attempt distance
2. Average FG made distance
3. Average FG missed distance

To compute the expected FG%, I ran a regression of actual FG percentages based on those three variables. The fitted values of the regression model became expected FG%. In simple terms, it's the average FG% that an NFL kicker would be expected to have given his average attempt, made, and miss distances. Essentially, this establishes a level-of-difficulty score, much like in diving, for each kicker's season.

The difference between each kicker's actual FG% and his expected FG% can therefore be considered a true measure of a kicker's performance in a season, accounting for attempt distances. This method does not yet isolate how much of a kicker's performance was due to luck, but it is the first necessary step to do so.

Here are the best kicking performances of the 2003-2006 period, accounting for attempt distances:

Year	Player	Team	Avg Att	Avg Made	Avg Miss	Actual %	Expected %	Act-Exp %
2003	Vanderjagt*	Ind.	33.8	33.8	NA	1.00	0.71	0.287
2004	Hanson	Det.	38.1	37.9	43.0	0.96	0.88	0.077
2003	Hanson	Det.	38.1	37.9	43.0	0.96	0.88	0.077
2006	Kasay	Car.	38.9	36.8	56.0	0.89	0.83	0.063
2005	Kasay	Car.	38.9	35.2	50.8	0.77	0.70	0.062
2005	Rackers	Ariz.	38.1	37.6	48.5	0.95	0.89	0.061
2005	Nedney	S.F.	38.5	38.0	45.5	0.93	0.87	0.058
2003	Janikowski	Oak.	39.0	37.3	51.3	0.88	0.82	0.056
2006	Longwell	Minn.	33.6	30.4	50.0	0.84	0.78	0.055
2003	Graham	Cin.	37.2	35.2	51.3	0.88	0.83	0.055
2003	K. Brown	Hou.	38.2	35.6	49.8	0.82	0.77	0.047
2003	Brien	N.Y.J.	37.3	35.0	49.6	0.84	0.80	0.047
2006	Hanson	Det.	36.3	34.4	50.0	0.88	0.83	0.045
2005	Hanson	Det.	35.7	32.4	48.2	0.79	0.75	0.045
2006	Rackers	Ariz.	37.6	34.0	48.9	0.76	0.71	0.044
2004	Wilkins	St.L.	35.9	35.5	41.7	0.93	0.88	0.044
2003	Wilkins	St.L.	35.9	35.5	41.7	0.93	0.88	0.044
2006	Lindell	Buff.	35.9	35.3	42.5	0.92	0.88	0.043
2006	Stover	Balt.	33.2	33.0	35.5	0.93	0.89	0.040
2006	Vinatieri	Ind.	36.6	35.5	45.3	0.89	0.85	0.039
2004	Vinatieri	N.E.	34.9	34.0	48.5	0.94	0.90	0.038
2006	Graham	Cin.	36.9	34.6	48.4	0.83	0.80	0.038
2003	Longwell	G.B.	36.2	35.0	44.7	0.89	0.85	0.036
2004	Longwell	G.B.	36.2	35.0	44.7	0.89	0.85	0.036
2005	Bironas	Ten.	37.4	34.6	48.3	0.79	0.76	0.033
2004	Janikowski	Oak.	36.3	35.5	43.0	0.89	0.86	0.030
2003	Stover	Balt.	34.7	32.8	47.6	0.87	0.84	0.029
2003	Lindell	Buff.	33.9	29.5	44.4	0.71	0.68	0.027
2004	Stover	Balt.	34.8	34.1	41.7	0.91	0.88	0.027
2006	Elam	Den.	33.3	32.6	43.5	0.93	0.90	0.027
2006	Kaeding	S.D.	35.8	35.2	41.0	0.90	0.87	0.027
2003	Andersen	K.C.	39.1	36.9	47.5	0.80	0.77	0.027
2005	Wilkins	St.L.	39.1	38.4	44.0	0.87	0.84	0.026
2005	Vanderjagt	Ind.	32.8	32.2	39.5	0.92	0.89	0.026
2003	Akers	Phil.	36.4	34.3	46.4	0.83	0.80	0.026
2004	Akers	Phil.	36.4	34.3	46.4	0.83	0.80	0.026
2006	Wilkins	St.L.	36.8	35.5	45.2	0.87	0.84	0.025
2005	Reed	Pitt.	35.4	33.1	46.8	0.83	0.80	0.025
2005	Stover	Balt.	35.9	34.9	43.3	0.88	0.86	0.025
2003	Anderson	Ten.	36.5	35.3	44.8	0.87	0.85	0.024
2006	Gould	Chi.	36.8	36.2	42.0	0.89	0.86	0.024
2004	Graham	Cin.	37.2	36.3	43.0	0.87	0.85	0.023
2005	Dawson	Clev.	31.6	31.3	36.5	0.93	0.91	0.022
2005	Vinatieri	N.E.	36.4	33.9	46.4	0.80	0.78	0.022
2004	Kasay	Car.	36.9	35.3	45.3	0.84	0.82	0.021
2003	Kasay	Car.	36.9	35.3	45.3	0.84	0.82	0.021
2005	Kaeding	S.D.	36.4	35.5	42.7	0.88	0.85	0.020
2006	Carney	N.O.	32.4	32.0	37.5	0.92	0.90	0.020
2005	Peterson	Atl.	31.6	31.0	38.5	0.92	0.90	0.018
2004	Elam	Den.	36.1	34.7	44.0	0.85	0.83	0.018
2003	Feely	Atl.	38.1	34.3	47.1	0.70	0.69	0.018
2004	Feely	Atl.	38.1	34.3	47.1	0.70	0.69	0.018
2004	Gramatica	T.B.	37.2	31.9	45.6	0.62	0.60	0.017
2003	Gramatica	T.B.	37.2	31.9	45.6	0.62	0.60	0.017
2003	Elam	Den.	36.2	35.4	41.5	0.87	0.86	0.014
2003	Christie	S.D.	35.9	32.7	45.4	0.75	0.74	0.014
2005	Graham	Cin.	34.0	32.8	43.0	0.88	0.86	0.011
2006	Feely	N.Y.G.	34.4	32.9	43.0	0.85	0.84	0.010
2005	Akers	Phil.	39.6	36.5	48.0	0.73	0.72	0.010
2006	Nugent	N.Y.J.	33.8	33.2	38.7	0.89	0.88	0.010
2003	Carney	N.O.	38.4	35.3	47.0	0.73	0.72	0.009
2004	Carney	N.O.	38.4	35.3	47.0	0.73	0.72	0.009
2006	Andersen	Atl.	34.3	33.4	40.0	0.87	0.86	0.007
2003	P. Dawson	Clev.	33.6	32.1	43.0	0.86	0.85	0.007
2003	Cundiff	Dall.	36.0	33.7	45.0	0.79	0.79	0.006
2004	Cundiff	Dall.	36.0	33.7	45.0	0.79	0.79	0.006
2005	Gould	Chi.	35.0	32.3	44.7	0.78	0.77	0.006
2006	Bryant	T.B.	36.7	34.2	45.2	0.77	0.77	0.004
2005	Elam	Den.	38.0	35.3	46.0	0.75	0.75	0.003
2004	Vanderjagt	Ind.	35.5	33.4	44.2	0.80	0.80	0.000
2005	Tynes	K.C.	35.4	33.7	43.0	0.82	0.82	-0.001
2005	Nugent	N.Y.J.	35.7	33.5	43.8	0.79	0.79	-0.004
2006	Scobee	Jax.	39.0	37.8	44.2	0.81	0.82	-0.004
2005	Janikowski	Oak.	37.6	33.6	45.6	0.67	0.67	-0.005
2005	Scobee	Jax.	36.4	34.0	44.0	0.77	0.77	-0.005
2003	J. Brown	Sea.	39.7	37.1	46.8	0.73	0.74	-0.006
2004	J. Brown	Sea.	39.7	37.1	46.8	0.73	0.74	-0.006
2004	Tynes	K.C.	37.9	35.2	45.5	0.74	0.75	-0.007
2004	Hall	Wash.	38.8	36.6	45.5	0.76	0.77	-0.008
2003	Hall	Wash.	38.8	36.6	45.5	0.76	0.77	-0.008
2004	Reed	Pitt.	34.0	33.1	38.8	0.85	0.86	-0.011
2004	Scobee	Jax.	35.2	32.9	43.1	0.77	0.79	-0.012
2006	Mare	Mia.	37.1	34.1	45.1	0.72	0.73	-0.012
2003	Elling	Minn.	36.8	33.8	44.4	0.72	0.73	-0.014
2004	Elling	Minn.	36.8	33.8	44.4	0.72	0.73	-0.014
2004	Lindell	Buff.	29.5	28.1	37.8	0.86	0.87	-0.015
2004	Dawson	Clev.	34.7	33.5	40.6	0.83	0.84	-0.016
2006	Nedney	S.F.	34.3	33.2	39.5	0.83	0.85	-0.019
2005	Feely	N.Y.G.	36.4	35.7	40.0	0.83	0.85	-0.020
2006	Brown	Sea.	36.2	34.9	41.8	0.81	0.83	-0.021
2006	Tynes	K.C.	36.9	35.1	43.1	0.77	0.80	-0.024
2006	Bironas	Ten.	34.4	32.5	41.7	0.79	0.81	-0.025
2005	M. Bryant	T.B.	38.4	38.4	38.5	0.84	0.87	-0.026
2005	J. Brown	Sea.	41.3	39.1	46.9	0.72	0.75	-0.027
2003	Mare	Mia.	37.4	35.5	43.1	0.76	0.79	-0.027
2004	Kaeding	S.D.	35.3	34.0	40.6	0.80	0.83	-0.032
2005	Lindell	Buff.	35.3	34.7	38.3	0.83	0.86	-0.032
2006	K. Brown	Hou.	39.4	37.9	44.0	0.76	0.79	-0.034
2004	K. Brown	Hou.	37.5	34.9	43.7	0.71	0.75	-0.039
2004	Brien	N.Y.J.	35.9	35.5	38.2	0.83	0.87	-0.039
2003	Vinatieri	N.E.	33.0	30.4	40.2	0.74	0.78	-0.041
2005	Mare	Mia.	34.8	34.6	35.8	0.83	0.88	-0.045
2006	Janikowski	Oak.	38.9	36.8	44.4	0.72	0.77	-0.045
2003	Conway	Clev.	36.8	34.9	42.0	0.74	0.79	-0.050
2006	Gostkowski	N.E.	32.7	30.9	38.7	0.77	0.82	-0.050
2006	Akers	Phil.	34.3	33.0	39.0	0.78	0.83	-0.051
2005	Carney	N.O.	33.6	32.2	38.4	0.78	0.83	-0.051
2005	K. Brown	Hou.	35.6	34.1	40.6	0.77	0.82	-0.051
2006	Rayner	G.B.	35.7	33.9	40.9	0.74	0.80	-0.056
2004	Anderson	Ten.	37.6	36.7	40.6	0.77	0.83	-0.058
2006	Vanderjagt	Dall.	34.0	31.8	39.6	0.72	0.79	-0.064
2006	Dawson	Clev.	36.7	34.9	41.5	0.72	0.79	-0.067
2005	Cortez	Ind.	35.3	33.3	40.2	0.71	0.79	-0.082
2005	Longwell	G.B.	37.7	36.8	40.4	0.74	0.83	-0.088
2005	Edinger	Minn.	36.5	35.5	39.4	0.74	0.83	-0.096
2004	Edinger	Chi.	38.4	37.7	40.3	0.72	0.83	-0.111
2003	Edinger	Chi.	38.4	37.7	40.3	0.72	0.83	-0.111
2006	Reed	Pitt.	35.6	35.0	37.4	0.74	0.85	-0.113
2004	Mare	Mia.	39.0	39.1	38.8	0.75	0.87	-0.117
2004	Gramatica	Ind.	34.6	31.1	39.5	0.58	0.70	-0.122
2003	Reed	Pitt.	34.4	33.8	36.1	0.72	0.86	-0.141
2003	Marler	Jax.	35.9	33.5	39.5	0.61	0.75	-0.148

Here is a list ranking the kickers from best to worst based on their multi-year performance during the same period. The number of seasons in which each kicker qualified is also listed. (* Vanderjagt's perfect year skews his results strongly. His average miss distance in 2003 was theoretically infinite! Giving him a realistic yet excellent score (+0.10) for '03 would place him between Stover and Nedney.)

Kicker	% Act-Exp	Years
Vanderjagt*	0.062	4
Hanson	0.061	4
Rackers	0.053	2
Kasay	0.042	4
Wilkins	0.035	4
Graham	0.032	4
Stover	0.030	4
Nedney	0.019	2
Peterson	0.018	1
Andersen	0.017	2
Elam	0.016	4
Gould	0.015	2
Vinatieri	0.014	4
Christie	0.014	1
Longwell	0.010	4
Janikowski	0.009	4
P. Dawson	0.007	1
Feely	0.007	4
Cundiff	0.006	2
Lindell	0.006	4
Kaeding	0.005	3
Bironas	0.004	2
Bryant	0.004	1
Brien	0.004	2
Akers	0.003	4
Nugent	0.003	2
Carney	-0.003	4
Scobee	-0.007	3
Hall	-0.008	2
Tynes	-0.010	3
J. Brown	-0.013	3
Elling	-0.014	2
Anderson	-0.017	2
K. Brown	-0.019	4
Dawson	-0.021	3
Brown	-0.021	1
M. Bryant	-0.026	1
Gramatica	-0.029	3
Conway	-0.050	1
Gostkowski	-0.050	1
Mare	-0.050	4
Rayner	-0.056	1
Reed	-0.060	4
Cortez	-0.082	1
Edinger	-0.106	3
Marler	-0.148	1

Acounting for Vanderjagt's perfect year, Jason Hanson comes out on top. But to put things in perspective, a +6% accuracy rate above average equates to about 1.75 extra FGs made per season.