The efficiency model predicted upsets by Cleveland over Baltimore, Detroit over Chicago, Buffalo over the Jets, Tampa Bay over Carolina, and Kansas City over San Diego.
Overall, the efficiency model correctly predicted winners in 9 out of 12 games. The consensus favorite, as defined by betting lines, was only 3 out of 11 as of Sunday evening. (The difference in total games is due to the GB at MIN game being a pick 'em, i.e. point spread = 0).
Week 4 Results
published on 9/30/2007
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What sort of idiot would call the GB/MIN game a pick'em?
(I know, not your problem, but that just strikes me as absurd.)
These guys: http://covers.usatoday.com/data/odds.aspx
But yeah, it seems a little odd. I think the fact that MIN's defense is solid and the game was in Minneapolis had a lot to do with it.
It actually looks like there was a late move to make GB a 1-pt favorite, though.