How Draft Experts Are Graded

It seems that everyone has a mock draft board these days. The object of this parlor game seems to be to predict which players will be picked by each team. So draft gurus tend to be judged by how many correct predictions they make. When you think about it, it's pretty ridiculous. A draft expert has to get four things right. He needs to not only evaluate players and team needs, but also evaluate all 32 teams' own perceptions of each player and its needs. And if one prediction at the top of the first round is off the mark, the house of cards collapses.

I think a much better way to evaluate draft experts is to wait several years, then see which players actually turned out to be more productive. Look at how they rated each player, not how well they read the minds of the league's GMs.

Besides, in my eyes the real value of a draft expert is be able to tell me in 30 seconds everything there is to know about that strong safety from Alcorn State my favorite team just picked up midway through the 4th round...without any notes or any hesitation...and has a full head of hair. And for that, there is only one man.

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4 Responses to “How Draft Experts Are Graded”

  1. JTapp says:

    I agree. The 10 minutes or so where they say "That was a smart pick by the Patriots," or whatever just gets old. As does the fan cheering and jeering.

    I think they should focus on a few players that they think are underrated or will perform very well and follow them throughout the day. Maybe guys like Andre Woodson who performed poorly in all-star games but very well in college. But then there'd be nothing to talk about for endless hours as we've had to watch "on the clock" every night this week.

  2. Anonymous says:

    Is that man Mayock? ;)

    It'd be easier if their was an archive of previous information. I can't access any of Kiper's old stuff even if it exists on ESPN. But seems like most of that stuff is burnt under cover of darkness the day after the draft.

  3. Anonymous says:

    I agree that the only way to grade draft experts is to look back at their draft boards, not at how many picks they got right this year. The problem is that you can have a guy (Tom Brady comes to mind) who really wasn't exceptionally good in college and didn't deserve to be drafted in the first few rounds, who turns out to be stellar. You can't fault the draft experts for missing that player because they just hadn't developed fully.

  4. Anonymous says:

    I believe full disclosure is called for, Mr. Burke...

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