Team Playoff Probabilities - Week 16

Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts.

The Ravens have further strengthened their position in the AFC, while the battle in the NFC continues to be a battle between the Giants and Cowboys. The Cowboys currently have the upper hand, but the Packers' loss last week has made them vulnerable. The Ravens' weekend was miraculous. They won, while the Jaguars, Jets, Dolphins and Broncos all lost. Except for the Steelers, who still only have a small chance of making the playoffs, every single other competitor for the AFC wildcard lost ground. The Ravens went from the 'outside looking in' to the #5 seed.


These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.


AFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NE
99
1
0
0
MIA
1
64
35
0
NYJ
0
35
65
0
BUF
0
0
0
100
AFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
CIN
97
3
0
0
BAL
3
89
7
0
PIT
0
7
93
0
CLE
0
0
0
100
AFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
IND
100
0
0
0
JAC
0
52
32
16
TEN
0
29
44
27
HOU
0
19
24
57
AFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
SD
100
0
0
0
DEN
0
100
0
0
OAK
0
0
100
0
KC
0
0
0
100
NFC EAST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
PHI
60
40
0
0
DAL
40
21
39
0
NYG
0
39
61
0
WAS
0
0
0
100
NFC NORTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
MIN
100
0
0
0
GB
0
100
0
0
CHI
0
0
100
0
DET
0
0
0
100
NFC SOUTH
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
NO
100
0
0
0
ATL
0
92
8
0
CAR
0
8
92
0
TB
0
0
0
100
NFC WEST
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
ARI
100
0
0
0
SF
0
100
0
0
SEA
0
0
100
0
STL
0
0
0
100




AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
IND
100
0
0
0
0
0
100
SD
0
98
2
0
0
0
100
NE
0
2
70
26
0
0
99
CIN
0
0
27
70
0
1
98
BAL
0
0
0
3
54
20
77
DEN
0
0
0
0
31
41
72
MIA
0
0
0
1
1
7
9
JAC
0
0
0
0
8
9
16
NYJ
0
0
0
0
5
5
10
PIT
0
0
0
0
2
12
14
HOU
0
0
0
0
0
3
3
TEN
0
0
0
0
0
2
2
BUF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CLE
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
KC
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
OAK
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team
1st
2nd
3rd
4th
5th
6th
Total
NO
100
0
0
0
0
0
100
MIN
0
65
27
8
0
0
100
PHI
0
25
33
1
20
20
100
DAL
0
5
21
14
1
21
62
ARI
0
3
19
78
0
0
100
GB
0
0
0
0
61
26
87
NYG
0
0
0
0
18
33
51
WAS
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CHI
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
DET
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
ATL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
CAR
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
TB
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
STL
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SF
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
SEA
0
0
0
0
0
0
0

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