We're always happy to list interceptions by quarterback or by defender, but rarely do we see interception stats by receiver. So I put one together. These are not interceptions I have qualitatively determined to be the receivers fault, but simply all interceptions when the receiver was listed as the intended target.
Player | Team | Ints |
82-K.Winslow | TB | 7 |
89-S.Smith | CAR | 6 |
83-V.Jackson | SD | 6 |
17-D.Moore | OAK | 6 |
13-St.Johnson | BUF | 5 |
84-R.White | ATL | 5 |
83-F.Davis | WAS | 5 |
87-R.Wayne | IND | 5 |
87-B.Celek | PHI | 4 |
86-D.Nelson | BUF | 4 |
12-A.Roberts | ARI | 4 |
82-M.Manningham | NYG | 4 |
87-A.Caldwell | CIN | 4 |
80-M.Thomas | JAX | 4 |
87-E.Decker | DEN | 4 |
10-D.Jackson | PHI | 4 |
17-A.Benn | TB | 4 |
88-T.Gonzalez | ATL | 4 |
88-E.Sanders | PIT | 3 |
80-J.Graham | NO | 3 |
85-A.Gates | SD | 3 |
82-D.Bowe | KC | 3 |
11-L.Fitzgerald | ARI | 3 |
17-A.Collie | IND | 3 |
11-S.Smith | PHI | 3 |
10-J.Gaffney | WAS | 3 |
19-D.Jones | BUF | 3 |
17-L.Naanee | CAR | 3 |
12-J.Ford | OAK | 3 |
18-A.Green | CIN | 3 |
87-R.Gronkowski | NE | 3 |
84-B.Lloyd | DEN | 3 |
88-D.Bryant | DAL | 3 |
84-E.Dickson | BAL | 3 |
19-B.Marshall | MIA | 3 |
81-C.Johnson | DET | 3 |
82-B.Hartline | MIA | 3 |
Obviously, the QB, the lines, and the secondary all play roles. Interceptions could be considered the culmination of the efforts and errors of all 22 players on the field. Situations and luck play their part as well. And this list does not necessarily mean the guys at the top aren't doing their job. It could mean just the opposite. Maybe they're drawing more than their share of double coverage, or they are their QB's security blanket--the guy his QB instinctively looks for when in a panic. Still, it's a different way to look at one of the most important plays in the game.
Nice!
Could you incorporate those into the wide receiver stats page somehow? Should this be reflected in the player's WPA and EPA?
Related to this--is there a way to disentangle the interception "accountability" somehow? For instance (this is something I did with your PBP data from 05, I think it was): create a regressing predicting likelihood of interception modeled as a*QB + b*WR + c*Defense = odds of interception, where the set is limited to teams with multiple QBs playing significant time, constrain (a + b + c)=1.0, and then solve for a, b, and c.
Actually, I don't think I ran that for interception%, but for some other results... What do you think, Brian?
conversion to a rate stat?
I second the notion of wanting to see it converted to a rate. This was the first thing that screamed out at me when I read the chart. Is Winslow at the top (or is it bottom?) merely because he has twice as many targets as every other player? Or does he get half as many targets, and he just stinks that badly?
Rate would be good, but with some necessary caveats. Probably should limit it to only receivers with 2 or more interceptions or X number of targets.
Rates:
Player Team Ints Targets INT%
17-A.Collie IND 3 26 11.5%
17-D.Moore OAK 6 54 11.1%
82-K.Winslow TB 7 70 10.0%
12-J.Ford OAK 3 30 10.0%
84-B.Lloyd DEN 3 33 9.1%
12-A.Roberts ARI 4 45 8.9%
83-V.Jackson SD 6 71 8.5%
82-B.Hartline MIA 3 36 8.3%
83-F.Davis WAS 5 64 7.8%
87-A.Caldwell CIN 4 53 7.5%
89-S.Smith CAR 6 81 7.4%
87-B.Celek PHI 4 55 7.3%
86-D.Nelson BUF 4 55 7.3%
13-St.Johnson BUF 5 71 7.0%
10-D.Jackson PHI 4 58 6.9%
80-M.Thomas JAX 4 59 6.8%
85-A.Gates SD 3 45 6.7%
19-D.Jones BUF 3 45 6.7%
82-M.Manningham NYG 4 62 6.5%
87-R.Wayne IND 5 83 6.0%
88-T.Gonzalez ATL 4 68 5.9%
84-R.White ATL 5 85 5.9%
87-E.Decker DEN 4 69 5.8%
88-D.Bryant DAL 3 53 5.7%
10-J.Gaffney WAS 3 59 5.1%
18-A.Green CIN 3 67 4.5%
84-E.Dickson BAL 3 68 4.4%
87-R.Gronkowski NE 3 73 4.1%
82-D.Bowe KC 3 80 3.8%
11-L.Fitzgerald ARI 3 83 3.6%
19-B.Marshall MIA 3 87 3.4%
81-C.Johnson DET 3 93 3.2%
80-J.Graham NO 3 94 3.2%
And then make it a rate relative to QB's overall INT rate. Then make a generic adjustment for position (RB,TE,WR). Aggregate over several season, and you *may* have something that is slightly predictive, though I have my doubts.
The regression suggested above could take care of all of that. Run it on the rate stat. A quick monte-carlo could provide reliability estimates.
Don't waste your time watching the film. Assigning "fault" is nearly impossible. Is a pass off the fingertips the receiver's fault or the QB's? The regression would pull out what can be pulled out. I'm guessing R^2 will be low.
Naanee is incorrectly listed as a Charger.
This seems like a figure that'd need a huge sample to be worth while. Like 4-5 seasons, minimum, because INTs are infrequent and are probably more often a QB/defense responsibility. And, as anon suggested, adjusted for QB and position.
Naanee fixed. Thanks.
Yes. Very random!
Thanks, DSMok1.
I've said for years that some INTs should be viewed like errors in baseball. You know, earned interceptions vs. unearned. Someone makes the call, and the unearneds don't count against the QB's stats. And potentially they could count against the receiver (fielder) as an error.
Will Heller? Stafford's been picked off IIRC at least two times, and with him being a third string TE that's probably a ridiculous int/target ratio. Any chance you've got those numbers?
This Sunday the 49ers double teamed Larry Fitzgerald all day leading to some ridiculous interceptions in Larry Fitzgerald's general direction.