Game probabilities for week 14 are available at the New York Times. This week I look at the Kansas City Chief's unusual season.
...The efficiency model never thought the Chiefs were a dominant contender. At their peak after Week 7, they were ranked seventh over all. Since then, they’ve slipped to 22nd.
Admittedly, two of the Chiefs’ three losses came against a very good Broncos team, but the efficiency model accounts for opponent strength. In fact, despite being outplayed in their most recent loss, they rose one notch in the model’s efficiency rankings....
Love this site, but it's amazing how badly the probability model has fallen off over recent weeks as a useful predictive tool. The recent "headlines" (e.g. closeness of the Jets/Ravens and then Chiefs/Skins) have, in hindsight, been particularly cringe-worthy. Sincerely, A Bettor on a Recent Bad Streak Masquerading as a some type of Objective Commentator (Ned)