Week 16 Game Probabilities

Game probabilities for week 16 are available at the New York Times. This week I take a look at how to measure the playoff impact of individual games for both conferences.

...As the playoff field narrows with two games remaining, we can use what’s known as a Monte Carlo simulation to play out the remainder of the season several thousand times, weighting the game outcomes according to the game probabilities produced by the Advanced NFL Stats efficiency model...

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4 Responses to “Week 16 Game Probabilities”

  1. Unknown says:

    47% for the Colts to win in KC and 35% for the Giants in Detroit both seem somewhat high. But 54% for the Redskins to beat the Cowboys? Do the Redskins even have a HFA anymore?

  2. Ian says:

    Inpredictible thinks that SF is relatively better than ANS, but gives SF lower probability of making the playoffs than you do. I wonder where the difference is.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Ian: It must have to do with the way Inpredictable ranks other teams, not just SF themselves. SF's eventual playoff seed will depend on the results of many games, not just their own but also the remaining games played by the Saints, Panthers, and Cardinals (and their opponents). A small change in the GWP of any of those teams can mess with the probability of SF making the playoffs.

    The worst scenario for SF would be if they lose to the Falcons. Inpredictable does rate the Falcons as being a bit better than ANS does (21 vs. 24), so that is probably the main reason it gives them a worse chance of making the playoffs.

  4. Anonymous says:

    Ian, that difference is probably just an indication of the uncertainty in the calculations. A minor tweak here an there, and one would certainly get different numbers.

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