NFC Predictions based on 2nd Half of '06

Here are the 2007 NFC projections for win totals using only efficiency stats from weeks 9-17 of the 2006 season. In parentheses are each team's difference from projected wins based on stats from the entire 2006 season.

NFC
-----------------
North
-----------------
CHI 10 (-2)
GB 9 (+1)
MIN 7 (0)
DET 6 (+1)

South
-----------------
NO 10 (-1)
CAR 10 (+1)
TB 6 (+1)
ATL 3 (-4)

East
-----------------
PHI 10 (-2)
DAL 9 (0)
NYG 8 (0)
WAS 5 (-1)

West
-----------------
ARI 10 (+3)
STL 9 (-1)
SS 8 (+1)
SF 7 (0)

The Cardinals could be a big surprise if they continue to play the way they did the second half of 2006. It also looks like the collapse in Atlanta last year was for real, and not just due to luck.

AFC Predictions based on 2nd Half of '06

Instead of using team efficiency stats from all of the 2006 NFL season for the basis for 2007 predictions, I tried the same projections using only the stats from the 2nd half of the 2006 season.

Ignoring the first half of the season would account for several things. First, important personnel replacements occur partway through the season, such as quarterbacks Cutler, Leinart, and Campbell.

It also accounts for player development. Vince Young appeared to blossom in the second half of the year. Steve McNair turned it up a notch once he felt comfortable in the Ravens offensive system.

Lastly, teams as a whole fundamentally improve or get worse throughout a season. Using only data from the 2nd half of the season better captures those trends.

However, there are drawbacks to using a smaller data set. The sample size is smaller and the variance from luck is noisier. It also might capture effects from critical injuries that aren't certain to repeat this year. Donovan McNabb's and Bob Sanders' injuries come to mind.

So here are the 2007 projections for win totals using only efficiency stats from weeks 9-17 of the 2006 season. I'm not sure how much weight to give these projections, except that they give some deeper insight into the projections from the full 2006 season. In parentheses are each team's difference from projected wins based on stats from the entire 2006 season.

AFC
--------------
North
--------------
BAL 13 (+2)
PIT 8 (-2)
CIN 8 (-1)
CLE 2 (-2)

South
--------------
JAX 14 (+4)
IND 10 (-1)
TEN 7 (+1)
HOU 6 (+1)

East
--------------
NYJ 10 (+2)
NE 9 (0)
BUF 9 (+3)
MIA 8 (-1)

West
--------------
SD 11 (-1)
KC 8 (-1)
DEN 6 (-2)
OAK 5 (+1)

2007 Team Win Predictions

Here is an organized list of each divisions predicted wins for 2007. But before you believe anyone's pre-season predictions, read this.

AFC North
AFC South
AFC East
AFC West

NFC North
NFC South
NFC East
NFC West

2007 Prediction Summary

AFC Predictions (based on 2nd half of '06 only)
NFC Predictions (based on 2nd half of '06 only)

Advanced Football Analytics Overview

Who has the longest interception return ever? Which running back ran for the most yards in a single game? What team scored the most fourth quarter touchdowns in a season?

Answer: I don't care.

That's trivia, not statistics. What I'm interested in is analysis. What makes a winning team? Is it better to go for it or punt on 4th and short at the 50 yard line? Which teams are most likely to make the playoffs? How much does luck play a part in any game?

Advanced Football Analytics tries to answer those questions and many others. I call it "Advanced" because I use real statistical methods--regression, tests of significance, game theory, simulation and other advanced techniques. This isn't the kind of analysis you get on TV, and it's not for everyone.

This site is where you'll find some of the most innovative and interesting research in professional football. Almost everything here is completely original, but I also take a critical look at other analysis out there, debunking myths and fallacies where I find them. Being innovative and original can be risky, however. I can sometimes make mistakes, but I'm always open to constructive criticism and better ideas.

Thanks for stopping by.

2007 Prediction Summary

Below are the predicted wins for each NFL team based on a projection of last year's efficiency stats and this year's schedule.

AFC
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North
----------
BAL 11
PIT 10
CIN 9
CLE 4

South
----------
IND 11
JAX 10
TEN 6
HOU 5

East
----------
NE 9
MIA 9
NYJ 8
BUF 6

West
----------
SD 12
KC 9
DEN 8
OAK 4

NFC
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North
-----------
CHI 12
GB 8
MIN 7
DET 5

South
-----------
NO 11
CAR 9
ATL 7
TB 5

East
-----------
PHI 12
DAL 9
NYG 8
WAS 5

West
-----------
STL 10
ARI 7
SF 7
SEA 7

With these predictions, it looks like the playoff teams in the AFC woud be SD, BAL, PIT, IND, NE, and JAX. From the NFC, the playoff teams would be CHI, NO, PHI, STL, DAL, and CAR.

Note 1: I'm not actually predicting those exact win totals. The model is saying that each team's win probility distribution is centered at the specified win total. I realize that sounds rather weasel-like, but that's the nature of the sport. The standard deviation is just over +/-1 game and the 90% confidence interval is very close to +/-2 games. In other words, I'm about 65% sure STL will win between 9-11 games, and 90% sure that STL will win between 8 and 12 games.

Note 2: I've actually predicted 260 wins when there are really only 256 games. This is due to rounding.

Note 3: Historically, teams that have significant differences between their actual and expected win totals are teams that have had quarterback changes, due to either injuries or acquisitions. Look for teams such as MIA, KC, TB, and MIN to deviate from their projected wins.

Note 4: A couple teams have demonstrated a trend of winning consistently more or consistently fewer games than their efficiency stats would predict. NE, in particular, has won 2 more games than projected each of the past 5 years. In contrast is DET, which has consistently lost more games than their stats would predict. Perhaps this is evidence of good or bad coaching, especially in-game play calling and clock management. But maybe it's just evidence of lucky kicking.

NFC West 2007 Predictions

Here are the predictions for the NFC West. Methodology is described here.

AFC West 2007 Predictions

Here are the predictions for the AFC West. Methodology is described here.

NFC East 2007 Predictions

Here are the predictions for the NFC East. Methodology is described here.