Week 13 Game Probabilities

Win probabilities for week 13 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here with some modifications. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.

Every week I look at the game probabilities and think they're out to lunch, but somehow they consistently end up 10-4. I'm thinking the same thing this week.

The two broadcast network games on Thanksgiving are likely to be mismatches. But if the probabilities below are right, we have about a 1 in 4 chance that one of the two games will be a big upset. Meanwhile, the Lions 0-16 watch is now at 41%. But if you're a "glass-is-nanoscopically-full" type of Lions fan, the probability Detroit wins out the season and finishes 5-11 is 0.00009.

Pwin	GAME	Pwin
0.92	TEN at DET	0.08
0.15	SEA at DAL	0.85
0.37	ARI at PHI	0.63
0.28	SF at BUF	0.72
0.37	NYG at WAS	0.63
0.72	IND at CLE	0.28
0.67	CAR at GB	0.33
0.34	DEN at NYJ	0.66
0.51	NO at TB	0.49
0.92	MIA at STL	0.08
0.74	BAL at CIN	0.26
0.37	ATL at SD	0.63
0.62	PIT at NE	0.38
0.32	KC at OAK	0.68
0.60	CHI at MIN	0.40
0.31	JAX at HOU	0.69

Week 12 Efficiency Rankings

The Eagles were exposed against the Ravens defense. Miami was shredded by a surging Patriots offense. The Steelers offense got healthy against Cincinnati. Drew Brees' near-perfect game pushes New Orleans up 5 spots.

By far, the biggest puzzle right now is 4-7 San Diego who top the efficiency rankings despite another loss. How is it that the league's most efficient team is so far below .500? A total of about 2 minutes of football separate them from their current record and being 8-3, in the thick of the battle for a first-round bye in the playoffs. The Chargers have lost four games within the final 24 seconds of the fourth quarter.

• Week 1 vs. the Panthers--Carolina TE Dante Rosario catches a desperation touchdown pass as time expires to steal a win.
• Week 2 vs. the Broncos--A blown call by referee Ed Hochuli robs San Diego of a game clinching turnover and allows Denver to score the go-ahead touchdown with 24 seconds remaining in the game.
• Week 11 vs. the Steelers--Jeff Reed kicks a 32-yard field goal with 15 seconds remaining to take an 11-10 lead.
• Week 12 vs. the Colts--The Chargers defense forces fourth down in the final seconds only to be burned by an unexpected deep pass. Adam Vinatieri subquently kicks a 51-yard field goal as time expires.

The Colts game is a good example of what is happening to the Chargers. San Diego out-threw the Colts by 8.3 net yards per attempt to 5.6 net yards per attempt. They outran Indy 4.7 yards per rush to 4.0. Each team had one turnover, SD a fumble lost, and IND an interception. Both teams had identical kick and punt return averages. SD totaled more total yards, more first downs, better efficiency and fewer negative plays, yet somehow lost the game.

Throw in two more games that hinged on single plays, although not final-second ones.

• Week 7 vs. the Bills--Down by 6 with 6:16 remaining in the 4th quarter, the Chargers were poised to take the lead with a 1st and 10 on the Bills 9 yard line. An untimely interception thrown by the otherwise effective Phillip Rivers sealed their fate. The Bills went on to kick a FG, winning 23-14.
• Week 5 vs. the Dolphins--LaDanian Tomlinson is stuffed at the goalline on 4th down early in the 4th quarter. Miami holds on to its 7-point lead to win.

I'm not claiming that the Chargers would have or should have won any of those games. My point is that this is probably the best 4-7 team the NFL has ever seen. A few plays either way might have completely changed their record. And despite their losing record, the Chargers only trail the Broncos by two games with five left to play. Don't count them out just yet. The week 17 game between the two teams might determine the winner of the AFC West depending on how the tie breakers sort out.

RANK	TEAM	LAST WK	GWP	Opp GWP	O RANK	D RANK
1	SD	4	0.77	0.55	2	15
2	WAS	2	0.75	0.49	7	7
3	CAR	7	0.75	0.55	11	2
4	ATL	5	0.75	0.53	1	22
5	PIT	8	0.73	0.50	21	1
6	NYG	6	0.72	0.46	5	10
7	PHI	1	0.72	0.51	10	5
8	NO	13	0.71	0.54	3	17
9	MIA	3	0.69	0.50	4	23
10	ARI	10	0.68	0.54	6	16
11	TEN	9	0.67	0.43	12	3
12	CHI	11	0.64	0.48	14	8
13	TB	12	0.61	0.50	19	4
14	DAL	14	0.58	0.51	13	9
15	IND	16	0.57	0.54	8	19
16	NYJ	18	0.56	0.47	24	14
17	NE	20	0.53	0.49	18	24
18	BAL	21	0.53	0.50	22	6
19	DEN	17	0.50	0.50	9	27
20	GB	15	0.49	0.52	16	13
21	MIN	19	0.45	0.52	25	11
22	BUF	22	0.44	0.43	26	20
23	HOU	23	0.41	0.46	15	28
24	JAX	24	0.32	0.45	17	26
25	SEA	26	0.31	0.49	28	21
26	OAK	28	0.31	0.58	31	12
27	SF	27	0.26	0.53	27	25
28	CLE	25	0.25	0.52	20	29
29	KC	29	0.24	0.57	23	30
30	CIN	30	0.21	0.56	32	18
31	STL	31	0.11	0.56	29	31
32	DET	32	0.11	0.55	30	32

To-date efficiency stats below. As always, click on the headers to sort.

TEAM	OPASS	ORUN	OINTRATE	OFUMRATE	DPASS	DRUN	DINTRATE	PENRATE
ARI	7.5	3.3	0.018	0.024	6.4	3.7	0.029	0.42
ATL	7.2	4.4	0.019	0.009	6.3	4.9	0.024	0.31
BAL	5.7	3.9	0.030	0.023	5.4	3.5	0.055	0.45
BUF	6.7	3.9	0.034	0.029	6.2	4.3	0.020	0.30
CAR	6.5	4.4	0.029	0.015	5.5	4.0	0.025	0.38
CHI	5.8	4.0	0.017	0.018	5.8	3.3	0.039	0.34
CIN	4.2	3.4	0.029	0.028	6.3	4.1	0.022	0.32
CLE	5.4	4.2	0.029	0.024	7.2	4.5	0.046	0.33
DAL	6.9	4.3	0.036	0.032	5.5	4.1	0.014	0.50
DEN	7.2	4.4	0.029	0.023	7.0	4.8	0.011	0.36
DET	5.2	3.9	0.039	0.034	7.7	4.9	0.007	0.39
GB	6.3	3.9	0.025	0.027	5.5	4.8	0.048	0.52
HOU	7.0	4.4	0.045	0.026	6.9	4.5	0.029	0.29
IND	6.3	3.5	0.024	0.006	6.3	4.3	0.030	0.35
JAX	5.7	4.1	0.022	0.016	6.7	4.2	0.032	0.44
KC	5.1	4.9	0.029	0.026	7.6	5.0	0.029	0.31
MIA	7.2	4.1	0.017	0.014	6.8	3.8	0.022	0.33
MIN	5.6	4.4	0.040	0.023	6.2	3.1	0.021	0.41
NE	6.2	4.2	0.021	0.018	6.9	3.9	0.034	0.25
NO	8.1	3.7	0.028	0.024	6.4	4.2	0.026	0.40
NYG	6.4	5.1	0.021	0.019	5.4	3.8	0.042	0.49
NYJ	6.2	4.5	0.040	0.024	6.1	3.4	0.023	0.28
OAK	4.9	4.2	0.021	0.034	6.1	4.7	0.037	0.46
PHI	6.2	4.0	0.030	0.017	5.3	3.5	0.025	0.34
PIT	6.1	3.6	0.033	0.022	4.4	2.9	0.029	0.43
SD	7.9	3.9	0.031	0.016	6.3	4.1	0.016	0.32
SF	6.2	4.2	0.042	0.040	6.6	3.6	0.026	0.44
SEA	4.6	4.4	0.038	0.013	6.9	4.0	0.013	0.27
STL	5.1	3.8	0.041	0.027	7.5	4.9	0.019	0.44
TB	6.1	4.1	0.023	0.020	5.4	3.9	0.042	0.45
TEN	6.1	4.0	0.018	0.018	5.0	4.0	0.041	0.37
WAS	5.8	4.6	0.009	0.015	5.5	3.9	0.028	0.34
Avg	6.2	4.1	0.028	0.022	6.2	4.1	0.028	0.38