Game Probabilities - Week 13

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also discuss the playoff prospects for the Jets and Giants, and why they may seem pessimistic to most fans.

NFC Playoff Picture: Wildcards

Chris Cox from NFL-Forecast.com, who computes team playoff chances using his Monte Carlo simulation, provides the current playoff breakdown in the NFC. His AFC breakdown is here.

Yesterday, I posted a summary of the AFC playoff race. Today I turn my attention to the NFC. As a reminder, my approach is to tentatively declare Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, and Cardinals as division champs so that I can focus on the wild card races. The NFC East, and to a lesser extent the NFC West, are still up for grabs, but this assumption greatly simplifies the analysis.

Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 13

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, defensive interception rates, and team penalty rates. If you're scratching your head wondering why a team is ranked where it is, just scroll down to the second table to see the stats of all 32 teams.

JaMarcus Russell: Concorde of the NFL

With Jamarcus Russel’s recent benching, there’s been a lot of talk about when it’s time for a team to cut its losses on a failed quarterback. I don’t have hard numbers at my fingertips, but I’d be fairly certain that if a QB isn’t playing above average football or there hasn’t been steady improvement, by the end of his second year, it’s time to move on. [Edit: Here's a good look at that very question at PFR.] There’s no question teams tend to stick with struggling QBs well beyond their expiration date, even when better alternatives exist. The real question is, why?

Let’s say you’re an out-of-town Bills fan, and before the season began you were understandably optimistic about the team’s prospects. You bought prime tickets to the January 3rd game hosting the Colts, including parking and a hotel room. Altogether the bill comes to $400. In August, this feels like a great deal.

As the season wears on, it becomes clear the Bills aren’t contenders. The coach is fired, and the upcoming Colts game is not looking promising, as the Colts appear likely be playing for home field advantage in the playoffs. Everything points toward a humiliating blowout. What’s worse, as the game approaches the weather isn’t looking good. Bills fans are always the hardy type, but the foercast is beyond bad—snow, wind, freezing rain, and bitter cold. You’re not exactly excited about the prospect of going to the game.

AFC Playoff Picture: Wildcards

Chris from NFL-Forecast.com has done an excellent break down of the AFC playoff picture. Enjoy.

With 5 weeks remaining in the season, there are clear leaders in seven of the eight divisions. The NFC East division champ is very much up for grabs but in each of the other divisions there is one team that has an 80% chance or better of winning the division. The Cowboys have the inside track to the NFC East title, and even if the Eagles or Giants ultimately win that division, the Cowboys are likely to claim one of the wildcard spots. For the moment, if we designate the Patriots, Bengals, Colts, Chargers, Cowboys, Vikings, Saints, and Cardinals as division champs, we can focus on the wild card races. In this article, I will focus on the AFC wild card race.

(Much) More on 1st and 10 Run-Pass Balance

In a recent article I presented evidence that offenses should generally pass more often on first down. Accounting for both the potential gains and the potential risks of each type of play, passing tends to lead to a greater net point advantage than does running. The analysis was based on a concept known as Expected Points, which measures the average point advantage an offense can expect given a down-distance-field position situation.

Expected Points incorporates all the various factors such as turnovers, yardage gains, sacks, incompletions, first down conversions, scoring, and so on. But I thought it would be helpful to dig deeper to investigate how and why passing appears more advantageous. In this article, I'll present a series of graphs comparing running and passing on first down, each one looking at a different facet of the game.

Sunday Night 4th Down

Down by 3 with a little more than 3 minutes left in the game, Ravens head coach John Harbaugh faced a decision with a 4th and 5 at his own 48. Harbaugh decided to go for the first down. Both Al Michaels and Chris Collinsworth agreed Baltimore had no choice but to punt. Was it a good call?

Punts from the 46 net an average of 34 yards, which would put the Steelers at their own 20. In that situation, teams win 83% of the time. A punt gives the Ravens a 0.17 win probability (WP).

Conversion attempts for 4th and 5 situations outside the red zone are successful 48% of the time. An unsuccessful attempt leaves the Steelers with a first down at the Ravens' 46. Teams win 87% of the time from there, leaving the Ravens with a 0.13 WP. A successful conversion would, at worst, give the Ravens a first down at the Steelers 49, worth a 0.37 WP. On net, the conversion attempt is worth:

Andy Reid: Hero

Reid was my goat of the year for 2008 for the season's single worst 4th down decision, but today he's my hero of the day (or at least for the 1st quarter of the 1 pm games). Reid started the game with an unexpected onside kick, which is an underused but very worthwhile tactic. This time it didn't work out, but the Eagles recovered nicely, and now lead 10 - 7.

The linchpin of the Eagles's 1st quarter TD drive was a successful 4th down conversion. With a 4th and 1 on the Redskins' 42, Reid went for it, made it, and went on to take the lead (for the moment).