Announcement: Mobile WP Graphs

At your kid's soccer game and want to check out live WP graphs on your iPhone or Blackberry? Now you can. Mobile WP Graphs is now in beta. You need JavaScript enabled for the seemless live updates, but most modern mobile browsers will work just fine. I'll be working on it throughout the day (when not at my son's soccer game), so expect a few hiccups.

The regular flash-based live graphs are still available as always.

Roundup 9/25/10

Advanced individual player stats will be updated immediately after each game this season.


Game probabilities will start for week 4. They'll be featured at the NY Times again this season.

Wow.

TJ uses EP to analyze a big play call in the DEN-SEA game from last weekend.

NYT article on the 3-4. 

From the Advanced NFL Stats Community reboot:

Dan Schlauch on placekicker salary distribution. Leave some comments and give Dan some feedback.

John Candido is parsing weekly play-by-play for everyone this season. If you use John's data, be sure to leave behind a thanks. I'll be updating 2010 data periodically, but not every week.

Keep the submissions coming! Thanks again to Ed for tending to 'Community.'

The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Three

This week's edition of The Weekly League features notes about Sunday afternoon's Indianapolis-Denver game and also the Monday night contest between Green Bay and Chicago.

The following games have been chosen as they'll be available to the greatest portion of the network-watching audience, per the NFL maps at the506.com.

The Four Factors you see for each game represent each team's ability in four important categories (pass and rush efficiency, pass and rush efficiency against) relative to league average (where 100 is league average and anything above is good). They're only for this season's first two weeks of games, however. In other words, they're to be taken with the giantest grain of salt ever.

Finally, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.

Indianapolis at Denver | Sunday, September 26 | 4:15pm ET
Four Factors


Kyle Orton Hears a "Who?" (And Probably a "What?" and "How?" Also)
If you look at our quarterback leaderboards and sort by either EPA/P (Expected Points Added per Play) or AYPA (Adjusted Yards per Attempt), you'll see a surprising name either near, or even right at, the top of each list: Kyle Orton. Through the first two weeks of the season -- first at Jacksonville, and then home versus Seattle -- Orton has impressed both with his raw totals (he's thrown for a little over 600 yards now, good for sixth in the league) and by means of more advanced metrics (by EPA/P, Orton is the best quarterback in the NFL, with a 0.41 mark; he's also fourth among QBs with a 7.4 AYPA).

OT in the HOU-WAS Game: Punt or Field Goal?

My weekly post at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider site breaks down the decision making in overtime of the Texans-Redskins game Sunday. Both Kubiak and Shanahan faced the nearly identical situations: 4th down on the opponent's 34. One punted and one attempted the field goal. Which coach made the right call?

Comparing The 3-4 And 4-3 Defenses Part 2

In a previous post, I detailed how the 3-4 defenses over the past 10 seasons have, on average, outperformed 4-3 defenses. However, it’s possible that those 3-4 defenses simply had better players and that the 3-4 only appears to be the better scheme.

This time around, to account for each individual defense’s strength, I used a multivariate regression. The dependent variable in each model was a measure of success—EPA, WPA, and Success Rate (SR). The variable of interest was whether or not the defense was a 3-4 (a 1 if it was and a 0 if it wasn’t). The resulting coefficient of this variable represents the advantage of the 3-4 over the 4-3.

Each individual team was also assigned a dummy variable intended to capture the team-specific strength of their defense. Conveniently, this technique also accounts for the general year-by-year improvement in the effectiveness of NFL offenses.

Comparing The 3-4 And 4-3 Defenses Part 1

The 3-4 defense appears to be the wave of the future. Over the course of the recent decade, the number of teams that have employed the 3-4 defenses went from 3 to 14. This season, almost half the league will be fielding a 3-4 to one degree or another.

As the pass has become more important, it makes sense that defenses are adapting by replacing larger, slower players with faster, more agile ones. The unpredictability of the 3-4 front makes the offensive line's job that much harder. The success of defenses such as the Steelers, Ravens, Jets, and even now the Saints, suggests there may be a substantial advantage to the 3-4.

Using the concepts of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA), we can compare the effectiveness of the two defensive schemes over the past 10 seasons. EPA measures every play in terms of the change in the potential gain of net point advantage. WPA measures every play in terms of how much it changed a team's chances of winning the game at hand.

Vick as a Passer and Runner

Michael Vick intrigues me, his personal behavior aside. I suppose his playing style just stands out in a league full of clones. Last year I wrote that Vick was a better passer than most people think. His conventional statistics, such as passer rating and completion percentage, obscured his true performance. The difference isn't just the running yards he could gain, but the fact that he tended to throw deep because he was his own check-down option. He's back starting this Sunday, so it's a good time to take another look at Vick's career, this time through the lenses of Expected Points Added (EPA) and Win Probability Added (WPA).

Live Win Probability Graphs Available

Advanced individual player stats from week 2 are already crunched and available. The WP graph for tonight's game is up and running today for all games.

Throw in your 2 cents using the comment/chat feature!