This week's edition of The Weekly League features:
1. A thought about Randy Moss from St. Isaac the Syrian.
2. A rudimentary, deeply flawed, but maybe still somewhat meaningful attempt at separating running backs from their offensive lines (and vice versa).
and
3. About as much je ne sais quoi as is safe for an adult human to experience in one sitting.
Soak in the joy, America!
As usual, a glossary of all unfamiliar terms can be found here.
A Note on the Randy Moss Situation
As you are undoubtedly aware, Randy Moss was traded this week from New England to Minnesota. Why was he traded? Well, the popular narrative, which is probably accurate, is that the Vikings were in desparate need of a competent wide receiver and that New England (led by their unfeeling robot-coach Bill Belichick) is a team with almost zero tolerance for distraction. Which, that (i.e. a distraction) is what Moss had become recently, wondering aloud (and very publicly) about his future with the Patriots. (Also, it appears as though Moss got into a halftime argument with quarterbacks coach Bill O'Brien, even as the team was on its way to a convincing victory at Miami.)
The problem with this type of story is the amount of noise it creates. A brief glance at the sporting section of Boston.com (the Boston Globe's homepage) reveals no less than eleventy articles on the subject. These articles make precisely the points you'd expect them to, and a number of others that I, for one, would prefer they didn't. Tony Massarotti, for example, states that now the Patriots will "seek to reclaim the magic and karma that made them the preeminent franchise in football."
Magic and karma -- along with grit, sticktoitiveness, and a can-do spirit -- are the abstract concepts to which sportwriters appeal when they're unable to identify the underlying causes of the phenomena they're attempting to describe. Which, it's fine not to know the answer, but the responsible thing -- veryveryvery obviously -- is to say "I don't know."
In any case, the best lesson on the subject -- it almost goes without saying, really -- is from seventh-century anchorite St. Isaac of Syria. We learn the following from St. Isaac's Wikipedia page (which is, itself, obviously infallible):
The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Five
Washington Post: Clinton Portis' Misleading Stats
Today I've got another post up at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider site about how misleading Clinton Portis' rushing yardage totals are. He's managed to post some impressive totals, but he's been a net drag on the Redskins' offense during his tenure in Washington. With his recent injury, it gives the Redskins the chance to reevaluate their running game.
Game Probabilities - Week 5
Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also lead-in with a short discussion of how home field advantage affects different types of match-ups.
It's Blocked!
How often are field goal attempts blocked? And how does the rate vary by attempt distance?
I received a few requests to answer those questions after Monday night's field goal block for a touchdown return by the Patriots. It would also be a consideration in the final seconds of the Colts-Jaguars game Sunday afternoon.
Moss to Minnesota
Randy Moss goes back to the Vikings. Here is his career trajectory, since 2000 anyway. If he continues to be a deep threat, in addition to his own production, he would open up more opportunities for the other Minnesota receivers, and even for the running game.
Week 5 Efficiency Rankings
A lot of movement in the rankings this week. The Giants catapult to #2 on the backs of the Bears who fall from #1 to #9 thanks to that historic beat-down Sunday night. That kind of performance will be hard to repeat
San Diego's offense does not appear to be missing Vincent Jackson one bit, and their pass defense is giving up the second fewest yards per attempt. The model heavily regresses team stats, particularly so early in the season. Nevertheless, the Chargers look like a team about to rattle off a bunch of wins.
Two of the curiosities are the Cowboys and Redksins at #4 and #5. To figure out whey they're so high, all you need to do is scroll down to the team stats at the bottom of the post. Both teams are throwing the ball very well, and they've played against tougher-than-average opponents. Keep in mind these rankings aren't about who has won the most games in the past, but who is likely to win the most games in the future.
The End-Game in BAL-PIT
There were two critical decisions at the end of the Ravens-Steelers game Sunday. The first was a 4th down call, and the second...was also a 4th down call, but not the kind I usually harp on.
Down by 4 with 2:44 left in the game, John Harbaugh made the right call to go for the touchdown on 4th and goal from the 2. The fade pass to Anquan Boldin was unsuccessful (are they ever?), but Baltimore went on to win anyway. I won’t bore you with the actual numbers, but this is a perfect example of why going for it is usually the better call. Even when the play fails, it’s far from a death sentence.
The second and more interesting 4th down call came with 1:15 left. The Steelers faced a 4th and 10 from their own 3. An NFL statistician-emeritus asked me if the right call would have been to take an intentional safety. My first reaction was, ‘of course not.’ That cuts the lead to 2 points, making the lead vulnerable to a FG. I thought, what’s harder to do, drive 40 yards for a TD or drive 25 yards for a FG? Little did I know I was falling into the same trap many coaches do.
How Coaches Think: Run Success Rate
Before tools such as EPA and WPA were available, I relied on team efficiency stats to estimate team strength. Yards per pass attempt or per run attempt worked out to be very good estimators of how good a team was, especially if ‘good’ is defined as being likely to win forthcoming games. Efficiency stats had the added benefit of being relatively simple, widely available, and easy to calculate.
Efficiency stats also worked well in regression analysis. In a regression model, it’s best if the predictor variables are independent of each other. In other words, the less each predictor variable correlates with the others, the more valid and reliable the resulting model will be. Passing and running efficiencies in the NFL correlate weakly. Over the past 10 seasons, offensive passing and running efficiencies for each team correlate at 0.09 (where 1 would mean lock-step correlation and 0 would mean complete independence.)