Atlanta's 4th Down Decision Vs. Tampa

The Falcons trailed the Buccaneers by 6 with 4:11 left in the 4th. They faced a seemingly impossible 4th and goal from the Tampa 15. Head coach Mike Smith elected for the field goal attempt. Was this the right call?

4th and goals from the 15 might seem impossible, but they're not. The success rate is low but not zero. In fact it's about 14%. That's not a welcome prospect, but neither is handing the ball to an opponent who's up by 3 points with 4 minutes to play. And even if the conversion attempt fails, it's far from fatal. The calculus merely changes from needing a FG to tie, to needing a TD to win. Notice I said needing a FG to tie. Sure, TDs are harder to come by than FGs, but tying is not the object of the game. Put simply, TDs are more than half as likely as FGs in that situation, which makes the gamble for a tying FG a sucker's bet.

The Wall

Most if not all of the neat stuff here starts out as something I'm interested in for my own purposes. The WP Model started just because I was personally curious how likely my favorite team was to win at various stages of a game. The Match-Up page started as my own tool for doing the NY Times intros for the game probabilities. The Players of the Week page started as a tool for my weekly analysis posts. And this new feature is no different. It helps me keep tabs on games I should pay attention to.

This is really meant for those with large monitors. Definitely not for your smart phone. It's the perfect companion for Red Zone channel junkies like myself. And it's best live.

Introducing The Wall.

The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Three

Scott Chandler: The Most Important Football Player.

This week's edition of The Weekly League features

1. Mega Previews for the New England-Buffalo, Detroit-Minnesota, and Green Bay-Chicago football games.

2. An Interesting Fact™ regarding the Jay Cutler Sack Problem™.

and

3. Unflinching -- and mostly unwarranted -- devotion to Bills tight end Scott Chandler.

New England at Buffalo | Sunday, September 25 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors


Notes
• In the event that you're curious about which receiver leads the 2-0 Bills in Expected Points Added (EPA), please be curious no longer -- because the answer is "tight end Scott Chandler."
• A couple other categories in which Scott Chandler leads the Buffalo receiving corps are EPA/P (1.12) and yards per target (8.8) -- i.e. pretty important things.
• All of which is to say: get Scott Chandler the ball, Buffalo Bills.
• A second note to the Buffalo Bills: try not to get Patriot quarterback Tom Brady the ball.
• Because he's the best at throwing it to his teammates, is why.

Cam Newton: Armed and Dangerous

Cam Newton was a no-brainer as the first quarterback prospect nabbed during the 2011 National Football League draft. Even so, there were many analysts and experts who questioned just how effective the rookie field leader would be during his freshman run. After Week 2 in the NFL, Newton is already turning doubters into believers... and rightfully so.

Week 1: Arizona Cardinals 28 Carolina Panthers 21

Newton had a solid National Football League (NFL) debut with a WPA of 0.37. The rookie threw two touchdown passes (both to Steve Smith). He chucked the "pigskin" for a total of 422 yards with just one interception. The first touchdown came on an impressive 77-yard pass in the opening quarter, while the second was a 26-yard toss with six seconds left in the half. Clearly, Newton can handle a little pressure; The first-year player even took the ball into the end zone and rushed for a total of 18 yards on eight carries.

Selected Game Recaps: Week Two

In this edition of selected game recaps, we take an objective look at the subjective best of week two, including:

• Oakland at Buffalo, in which Ryan Fitzpatrick dinks and dunks to victory.
• Philadelphia at Atlanta, in which Matt Ryan can't lose the game and Mike Kafka can't win it.
• Dallas at San Francisco, in which Tony Romo delivers an inspirational performance under adversity. No, really.

Ryan Kerrigan's Impact and Grossman on 3rd Down

Today's post at the Washington Post's Insider looks at how rookie Ryan Kerrigan's impact has been both explosive and consistent. Plus, how poor is Rex Grossman's performance on 3rd downs?

Plus, finally, a new headshot photo!

Introducing Our New Writers

I'd like to introduce the new writers/analysts here at Advanced NFL Stats. I was surprised by the response to the call for writers, which was both a blessing and a curse. It was great because there are so many talented people with an interest in football stats, but it also meant making some tough choices on who to include. I leaned strongly toward people with previous analytic and writing experience. So without further ado, here is the new cast:

A Markov Model of Football

After an 11-yard sack, Donovan McNabb and the Philadelphia Eagles were backed up to their own 25 yardline. Down 17-14 to the Green Bay Packers with 1:12 remaining in the game, the top-seeded Eagles were on the verge of being eliminated from their first game in the 2003 playoffs. On 4th-and-26, the Eagles call for a 25-yard slant. McNabb drops back and throws a bullet to Freddie Mitchell in stride, converting and laughing in the face of probability. The Eagles then drove down the field and kicked a field goal, sending the game into overtime where they would eventually win. What are the odds that a drive containing a 4th-and-26 from the 25 would end with a successful field goal? According to the Markov model, a whopping 1 out of 175.