Weekly Game Probabilities

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I look at the Jets-Patriots match up and discuss why great offenses tend to beat great defenses.

Podcast on FanGraphs

Carson recently invited me on his weekly podcast on FanGraphs. Jump on over to the coolest baseball site on the Web to hear Carson invent the adjective footbally, hear me forget Reggie Bush's name, and learn other stuff, including:

-similarities and differences in baseball and football analytics
-where my office is
-what the big inefficiencies in the NFL are
-why I was single for most of the lifespan of this site
-a thorough discussion of the NFL's running game
-and why so many Redskins fans hate me.

Ryan Kerrigan Backs Redskins Defense

The Washington Redskins are first in the East Division with a 3-1 record and the club has a rookie to thank for some of its success. The 16th overall pick of the 'skins out of Purdue, Ryan Kerrigan has adjusted well to his linebacker role after spending much of his time in college as a defensive end.

Kerrigan, a native of Muncie, Indiana, currently has the third highest Positive Win Probability Added (+WPA) at 0.83 amongst linebackers in the National Football League. Only Michael Boley of the New York Giants (0.87) and Sean Lee of the Dallas Cowboys (0.86) have performed better. The trio is the cream of crop in the NFL with the next highest +WPA coming in at 0.66 from Terrell Suggs of the Baltimore Ravens. Both Suggs and Boley are veterans of the league – a combined 16 years between them – while Lee is in his sophomore campaign.

Team Rankings: Week 5

Curious readers, here are your team rankings heading into the fifth week of NFL action.

The Top Dog: Dallas Cowboys
I know what you're thinking: "how can a 2-2 team with a negative point differential be the top team in the league?" While both of those facts are true, the Cowboys have also had an unfavorable schedule, as they have faced three top-12 clubs. Early in the season, this model will heavily weigh "strength of schedule," so there you go. Also, Dallas feels like one of those teams that can put up good numbers on a regular basis without winning many games. A paper team, if you will. The 'Boys get a break this week to prepare for the Patriots offensive attack.

Selected Recap: Ravens 34, Jets 17: All The Turnovers

Sunday Night Football, ostensibly, gives a primetime view to what should be a great matchup between two of the league's top teams. Sometimes, this ideal is foiled by circumstances outside of the team's control -- take, for example, Peyton Manning's injury lowering the quality of Week 3's Steelers-Colts matchup. But sometimes, a good matchup is there, and both teams play ugly, ugly football.

This was certainly the case in Week 4's Sunday Night matchup, as both the Baltimore Ravens and the New York Jets combined to fail to produce a 100 yard runner or a completion percentage over 33%. Both teams did manage to produce seven turnovers, however. This was the source of Baltimore's big victory: three of the four turnovers forced by the Ravens' defense turned into six points on the other end.

Cutler's Sack Struggles

Jay Cutler is a sack-magnet.  Cutler led the league in sacks last year with 52 and is currently the 2nd most sacked quarterback in the NFL with Sam Bradford taking that crown after a 7-sack performance Sunday.  Most of the blame usually falls either on his offensive line or on himself for holding the ball too long.  Both of these contribute to his sack-a-licious resume, but the biggest contributing factor may be the system in which he plays.

First, let’s look at the evolution of the shotgun offense.  In 2000, just under 20% of all pass plays were taken from shotgun.  As of 2010, almost 55% of all passing plays were taken from shotgun (57% so far this year!).

Should the Seahawks Have Kicked or Thrown?

At halftime, SEA trailed ATL 24-7. They managed an improbably 2nd-half comeback to within 2 points, trailing 30-28. SEA moved the ball into ATL territory in the closing seconds, but faced a 4th and 8 at the ATL 43 with 13 seconds left on a stopped game clock. SEA still had one timeout. They had enough time to risk a pass that could have dramatically improved their FG chances if successful. Instead, they chose to attempt a 61-yard FG. Was this the right call?

FG accuracy really falls off a cliff when the LOS is outside the 35. At very best, SEA could hope for a 20% shot from 61 yds, and that's very generous, allowing for solid footing and good weather.

We can typically expect 4th and 8 conversion attempts to be successful 37% of the time in that part of the field. SEA had a TO remaining, which means they could use the middle of the field. ATL would have to guard deep against a game-fatal TD, so I would put their chances at 37% at a minimum. A successful conversion means the LOS would be at the 35 at least, making the kick a 50/50 proposition at least.

Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

• Advanced stat box scores
• Top QBs of the week
• Top RBs of the week
• Top WRs of the week
• Top TEs of the week
• Top Defenders of the week
• Advanced team stats
• Offensive player season leaders
• Defender season leaders