The Janikowski Factor

Raiders kicker Sebastian Janikowski just banged home three 50+ yarders in his team's win over the Texans. A few weeks ago he tied the NFL record with a 63-yarder on a warm night in Denver. I was curious about just how much more successful he was at longer distances compared to the average kicker, so I dug up the data.

The graph below is his FG success by line of scrimmage (not kick distance) compared to the league average. His advantage, particularly at longer distances is evident. It looks like a about a 5 to 8 percentage point advantage at extreme ranges.

Saints' 8-Minute March

Up 10-6 early in the 2nd quarter, Drew Brees and the Saints offense took the field on their own 14.  At the time, the Saints had a 63% chance of winning the game.  What ensued was a 16-play, 8+ minute drive that ended in a Mark Ingram TD and an 83% chance of winning the game.  With the use of our Markov model, we take a look at the evolution of this marathon drive.

Sunday's Numbers Have Been Crunched

Sunday's numbers are now available, including advanced stat box scores, top players of the week, team stats, and season leader boards.

• Advanced stat box scores
• Top QBs of the week
• Top RBs of the week
• Top WRs of the week
• Top TEs of the week
• Top Defenders of the week
• Advanced team stats
• Offensive player season leaders
• Defender season leaders

Roundup 10/8/11

Reader and Community contributor Jim Glass points us to this NFL Films cut on the 1978 passing rule changes.

Hue Jackson wants the NFL to become a running league again. Good luck with that. Darren McFadden is breaking out this season, and Jackson's play calling may be part of the cause according to Brian Goff. This is something economists call complementary inputs. I think of it as 'interaction' effects. As I discussed in my podcast with Carson, football is all about interactions between player performance.

Say we could rate players on a 1 to 10 scale. In a sport like baseball, if you have a player who is a 4 and a player who is a 9, you get a total of 13 units of production. But in football, if you have an offensive line that's a 4 and a RB that's a 9, you get 4 units of production, maybe 5. This is because the RB isn't going to be finding many holes to showcase his abilities. If you have an o-line that's a 9 and a RB that's a 9, you don't get 18. You get 81.

A Q&A I did with Robert Vega of Battle Red Blog (SB Nation Texans blog) on how to interpret advanced player statistics. We discuss Arian Foster, Matt Schaub, and Shaun Cody.

What's Going On With Passing In 2011?

Passing numbers have been on the rise since 1978, but they’ve exploded this season. In 2010, offenses averaged 222 yds per game, while so far this year they’re averaging 246. Compare that to the 2000 season in which offenses averaged 206 yds per game.

What’s going on with passing? Is it higher completion percentage? Is it deeper passes? Is it simply more pass attempts? Let’s take a closer look at the numbers to get a better idea of what might be causing the dramatic increase.

Before I get to my theories, I’m going to throw a bunch of graphs at you. Each graph looks at one or more dimension of the passing game by year. Pay close attention to the axis numbers on the left side of each graph so you’re not deceived by varying scales. First, let’s look at Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/P). This combines all the other stats into one understandable number representing the net point differential gained or lost by each pass play. This includes sacks, penalties, turnovers, and everything else. This will give us an overall idea of passing’s relative potency over the past decade.

The Weekly League: Notes and Ideas for Week Five

Titan quarterback Matt Hasselbeck invites you to talk to the hand

This week's edition of The Weekly League features

1. Bright and shining previews for this week's Tennessee-Pittsburgh, Green Bay-Atlanta, and Chicago-Detroit football games.

2. A table including each team's pythagorean record using Expected Points Added.

and

3. Reason.

Tennessee at Pittsburgh | Sunday, October 09 | 1:00pm ET
Four Factors


Notes
• The Titans currently have the third-ranked offense per GWP and yet it likely has absolutely nothing to do with running back Chris Johnson.
• To wit: Tennessee currently ranks last in run EPA (-18.1), run EPA/P (-0.19), and second to last in run success rate (31.2%).
• Matt Hasselbeck, meanwhile, is averaging 7.3 adjusted yards per pass -- third only to Aaron Rodgers (8.0) and Tom Brady (7.9).
• Unfortunately for the Titans, much of the passing success has been due to the presence of Kenny Britt (16.5 EPA, 0.63 EPA/P, 11.1 YPT), now on the IR.
• Still, Hasselbeck managed an 8.8 YPA last week, targeting four difference receivers at least four times.

WP: Redskins Defense Is Carrying the Team

Today's post at the Washington Post's Insider looks how special teams helped them squeak by the Rams last week. Plus:

• Ryan Torain returns with a vengeance.
• The defense has been carrying the team so far.
• How likely are the 'Skins to make the playoffs?

Weekly Game Probabilities

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I look at the Jets-Patriots match up and discuss why great offenses tend to beat great defenses.