The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.
Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.
GWP is based on a logistic regression model applied to current team stats. The model includes offensive and defensive passing and running efficiency, offensive turnover rates, and team penalty rates. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.
RANK
TEAM
GWP
Opp GWP
O RANK
D RANK
1
IND
0.80
0.49
1
11
2
NO
0.71
0.47
2
7
3
DEN
0.68
0.34
7
15
4
PHI
0.65
0.50
10
2
5
NYG
0.63
0.47
8
3
6
BAL
0.60
0.41
6
18
7
NYJ
0.59
0.49
23
1
8
DAL
0.59
0.44
3
30
9
SD
0.59
0.45
4
23
10
PIT
0.59
0.50
9
16
11
TEN
0.56
0.55
18
5
12
JAC
0.53
0.59
17
13
13
GB
0.52
0.41
16
20
14
CHI
0.51
0.51
14
8
15
ARI
0.50
0.60
20
9
16
ATL
0.49
0.42
12
31
17
WAS
0.49
0.40
15
24
18
SF
0.47
0.46
22
12
19
BUF
0.47
0.50
24
17
20
HOU
0.46
0.56
5
32
21
NE
0.46
0.52
11
19
22
MIN
0.44
0.34
29
21
23
CIN
0.43
0.59
13
14
24
SEA
0.43
0.42
21
28
25
MIA
0.42
0.63
26
4
26
KC
0.42
0.53
19
26
27
CAR
0.37
0.58
31
6
28
OAK
0.34
0.56
32
10
29
TB
0.33
0.56
28
25
30
DET
0.30
0.55
25
27
31
STL
0.29
0.48
27
29
32
CLE
0.24
0.57
30
22
Raw team efficiency stats are listed below.
TEAM
OPASS
ORUN
OINT%
OFUM%
DPASS
DRUN
DINT%
PENRATE
ARI
6.0
3.2
3.1
2.7
7.2
3.1
1.8
0.45
ATL
6.8
3.4
1.1
1.4
6.2
4.7
1.8
0.34
BAL
7.5
4.7
1.9
1.1
6.7
2.5
6.3
0.48
BUF
5.5
5.3
2.2
0.7
6.0
4.4
2.3
0.61
CAR
4.9
4.3
7.4
2.1
5.8
5.4
2.2
0.33
CHI
6.8
2.8
5.0
0.7
5.1
3.9
1.9
0.44
CIN
5.6
4.2
4.3
1.4
6.7
4.0
1.0
0.44
CLE
4.2
3.3
6.5
0.8
6.8
5.4
0.0
0.42
DAL
7.7
6.8
3.4
0.0
6.9
4.7
1.8
0.47
DEN
7.1
4.7
0.0
0.6
4.3
3.3
5.9
0.33
DET
5.2
3.5
4.9
1.3
7.7
4.5
1.9
0.48
GB
6.1
4.1
0.0
0.0
6.3
3.9
7.4
0.46
HOU
7.1
3.3
1.9
2.2
7.2
6.3
2.1
0.37
IND
9.9
3.5
2.1
1.4
4.7
4.3
2.6
0.28
JAC
5.7
5.1
1.0
0.7
7.8
3.7
1.9
0.31
KC
5.5
3.6
2.4
1.4
6.9
3.8
1.0
0.47
MIA
4.6
4.7
3.2
0.6
8.2
3.0
0.0
0.23
MIN
5.0
4.8
1.0
1.3
5.1
3.5
4.4
0.36
NE
6.0
4.0
1.4
0.0
6.4
4.0
0.0
0.41
NO
7.9
5.0
2.1
1.2
5.6
3.2
5.6
0.37
NYG
7.9
4.0
1.1
0.6
4.4
6.1
6.2
0.38
NYJ
6.3
3.8
2.4
1.9
4.3
3.9
3.4
0.43
OAK
4.3
3.9
5.2
2.5
6.1
4.4
3.1
0.37
PHI
6.6
4.4
3.4
1.3
4.8
3.6
6.9
0.37
PIT
6.9
3.3
3.7
0.6
5.5
3.8
0.9
0.45
SD
7.8
2.8
2.6
0.0
5.8
4.5
4.4
0.43
SF
5.4
4.2
1.2
1.4
5.5
3.0
3.1
0.39
SEA
5.9
4.0
3.3
1.2
5.3
5.6
1.1
0.30
STL
4.6
4.9
1.0
1.6
7.8
4.3
2.1
0.45
TB
5.3
4.3
2.5
1.6
8.4
5.2
1.2
0.42
TEN
5.5
5.7
3.8
0.0
6.9
2.2
2.7
0.27
WAS
6.9
4.0
1.9
0.7
6.1
4.4
1.1
0.45
Avg
6.2
4.2
2.7
1.1
6.2
4.1
2.8
0.40
Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 4
A New Academic Study on Game Theory and Run-Pass Balance
There’s a new study on run-pass balance based on game theory minimax equilibrium. The study is called Professionals Do Not Play Minimax: Evidence from Major League Baseball and the National Football League and it’s from Kenneth Kovash and Steven Levitt (of Freakonomics fame).
The authors created their own version of Expected Points as their measure of play success. Using a giant regression model that accounts for all sorts of confounding variables, they find passes lead to more success than runs. Game theory would say that, ideally, both strategies should yield the same amount of success.
Worst NFL Commentary of All Time
Whatever the former worst commentary was, Chris Berman just shattered the record. Sunday night, basking in Brett Favre's miraculous game winning pass, Berman reflected on Favre's year in New York. He said that the Jets' current success should be attributed to Favre's presence there a year ago. He said, "Favre taught them...He taught them about winning."
He actually said that.
If I were a member of the Jets organization, I'd be extremely offended. Is there no shame from the Favre-ophiles? Is there no limit to their inanity? Are we really expected to believe that this single human, well known for his insistence his job was not to teach his younger teammates, is responsible for three wins by a former team? This is a team with a new coach, mostly new staff, new rookie quarterback, and a significantly upgraded defense. It's a team of professional athletes and coaches accustomed to winning their entire lives.
Zorn Is My Hero 2
Jim Zorn may have his hands full managing the Redskins, but I'll give him credit for his courage. Last week, I made the case that his two daring 4th down decisions on the final drive were the right calls. This week, before the sun had even set on the day his team couldn't beat the lowly Lions, he was excoriated for two more controversial decisions. In this post, I'll examine if he made the right calls in Detroit.
Roundup 9/26
The roundup is back. Here are some interesting links relevant to NFL analysis. I've been negligent in keeping up with this feature, so although there are some items that are a few months old, they're still good reads.
Time of Possession
Last night’s Colts-Dolphins game was a statistical anomaly. Miami had the ball for over three quarters of the game and yet lost. Time of Possession (TOP) is viewed by some as one of the keys to victory in football, but I’ve got a different take.
Coincidentally, just yesterday I received an email from a reader asking me if I had done much research on TOP stats. I haven’t done much, and I’ll explain why.
I believe TOP is an “intermediate outcome” in a football game. In other words, it is a natural byproduct of being good at something else. You can’t be good at “time of possession.”
Jim Zorn on 4th Down
Zorn is my hero today. On the Redskins’ final drive of their game against the Rams yesterday, head coach Jim Zorn went for it on 4th down not once, but twice. The network commentators were shocked, and the local media coverage has been decidedly critical. Were they good decisions?
The first decision “felt” right to me. Up by 2 points with 3:47 left in the 4th quarter, Washington faced a 4th and 1 at St. Louis’ 20 yd line. A FG attempt from there is an 84% proposition. A kickoff with a 5-point lead gives the Redskins a 0.76 Win Probability (WP). A missed FG attempt gives the ball to the Rams at the 27 and leaves the Redskins with a 0.56 WP. The net WP for the FG attempt is:
Exciting Sunday So Far
I'm a Comcast subscriber so I'm loving my Red Zone Channel, and I highly recommend it. The most exciting games of the day (according to WP) were the Baltimore-San Diego game and the Oakland-Kansas City game. Both came down to the last drive. The biggest comebacks were in the Houston-Tennessee and Pittsburgh-Chicago games. Chicago's comeback wasn't the classic come-from-behind type. But they were looking at a 10% WP until the missed field goal attempt.
Live WP for the New York-Dallas game.