The 2010 All-WPA Teams - Defense

This will be the first year of the WPA's for defenders. Last season we only had stats for offensive skill players, but this year we'll be looking at +WPA and to some extent +EPA, both of which measure defensive play-making, to select the All-WPA defensive squads.

Keep in mind what these stats measure. This is not an attempt to value a player in terms of his overall ability or his future expected performance. This is just a list of the guys who made the most big plays when it mattered most.

The envelope please...

Game Probabilities - Week 17

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I put blame where blame is due for the prediction model's under-performing season...squarely on the shoulders of Norv Turner.

Washington Post: Don't Blame McNabb

Today's post at the Washington Post's Redskins Insider looks at where the blame lies for the Redskins' offensive struggles this season.

The 2010 All-WPA Teams - Offense

Last year I introduced the first All-WPA team, which was a fun exercise. This season every player's WPA, EPA and other advanced stats have been updated all season long, so this post is little more than ceremonial. (And here are the mid-season awardees for offense and defense.) Still, I'm sure the players appreciate the official acknowledgment that comes with being recognized by an obscure statistic that only about 20,000 people have heard of and fewer even understand.

To be clear, these are the All-WPA teams, and are not necessarily the best players in the league. They are the players who actually played the best when it mattered most. It's a narrative statistic, highly sensitive to the circumstances of score and time. For those who are uninterested in WPA, feel free to sort the columns however you like. Click on the position headers to go to the full lists of players and their stats.

With that, to the selections. Envelope, please. The 2010 WPA's go to...

Team Efficiency Rankings - Week 17

A very unlikely season. It's possible that 3 of the top 5 teams in overall efficiency will not make the playoffs. The number one team is already eliminated. The #12 and #22 teams will have byes in the NFC. The #29 and #30 teams are duking it out on Sunday night  for a home playoff game, and the #26 team is theoretically still alive to win its division. That's the NFL.

SD's GWP is 0.81, which means they theoretically should have an .810 winning percentage over a large sample of games. After 15 games, the probability of such a team having at most 8 wins is only 1.4%. Special teams, bad luck, or whatever the adversity, 7.8 YPA and 5.4 defensive YPA should cure a lot of ills, especially combined with better than average interception rates on both sides of the ball.

The team rankings below are in terms of generic win probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule, and all ratings include adjustments for opponent strength.

Offensive rank (ORANK) is offensive generic win probability, which is based on each team's offensive efficiency stats only. In other words, it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. DRANK is is a team's generic win probability rank assuming it had a league-average offense.

Should the Falcons Have Punted?

Down 17 to 14 with 2:52 left to play, the Falcons faced a 4th and 6 from their own 43-yard line. With two timeouts and the two-minute warning in their pocket, they chose to punt, hoping to make a stop and get the ball back with enough time to tie or win in a final drive. Did head coach Mike Smith make the right call?

A punt in this situation typically nets 37 yards, which would give the Saints a first down at their own 20. This would give the Falcons a 0.15 Win Probability (WP).

Fourth-and-6 attempts outside the red zone are successful about 44% of the time. A success gives the Falcons a first down at (at least) their 49-yard line, worth 0.37 WP. A failure giving the Saints the ball at Atlanta's 43 would mean a 0.12 WP for the Falcons. All would not be lost. A stop or even allowing a FG still gives the Falcons time for a TD drive, which when all four downs are available are successful more often than many realize.

In total, the fourth down conversion attempt would be worth:

Players of the Week

With still games to be played this week, this might be a little premature. But there's enough attention on the prime-time games that great performances won't go unnoticed.

Aaron Rodgers kept his team's playoff hopes alive with his +0.61 WPA/+26.0 EPA performance against the Giants, topping all QBs for the week. 404 yards passing, no interceptions, with only 8 sack yards go a long way, especially when the opponent is keeping pace for much of the game. Runners-up are Tim Tebow (+0.54/+15.0) with an impressive comeback win and Carson Palmer (+0.43/+21.6) in a game that ended San Diego's shot at the post-season.

Matt Forte's 113 rushing yards at 5.9 YPC and 56  receiving yards on 4 catches against the playoff-bound Jets were good enough to top the RB list with +0.37 WPA and +5.9 EPA. Jamaal Charles (+0.21/+7.3) is runner-up with yet another impressive performance, including a 55% success rate. Correll Buckhalter is the EPA champ with +7.4.

Who's 'Clutch' in 2010?

Two of the most clutch QBs of 2010 face off tonight as the Falcons host the Saints. Although 'clutch' performance may not be a persistent skill in players, there undoubtedly exists clutch play itself. Due to the varying leverage created by the combination of score and time, some players will have their better moments when they matter most, and some players will have their worst moments at just the wrong time.

Here's one way to measure which QBs are most 'clutch' this season. WPA accounts for the leverage of score and time while EPA ignores it. We can plot each QB's Win Probability Added (WPA) against his Expected Points Added (EPA), creating a baseline expected WPA for each QB.