Generic Win Probability (GWP) tells us the probability a team will beat a league-average opponent at a neutral site, but teams don't play theoretical average teams. Some teams have harder schedules than others. Some teams have already played their weakest opponents and are probably overrated. Some teams have weathered an onslaught from the NFL's toughest teams and are likely underrated.
The table below lists each team and its GWP adjusted for previous opponents. Also listed is past opponent average GWP and future opponent average GWP. The table is sorted in order of future opponent strength. Teams with higher opponent average GWP will have an uphill climb for the rest of the season.
Team | GWP | Past Opp GWP | Fut Opp GWP |
BAL | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.61 |
WAS | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.59 |
NYJ | 0.39 | 0.57 | 0.58 |
MIA | 0.39 | 0.53 | 0.58 |
JAX | 0.70 | 0.51 | 0.57 |
CAR | 0.43 | 0.43 | 0.57 |
DET | 0.36 | 0.49 | 0.57 |
IND | 0.88 | 0.53 | 0.56 |
DAL | 0.78 | 0.44 | 0.56 |
HOU | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.56 |
BUF | 0.45 | 0.69 | 0.56 |
PHI | 0.68 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
NE | 0.89 | 0.49 | 0.55 |
OAK | 0.33 | 0.48 | 0.55 |
SD | 0.60 | 0.51 | 0.55 |
TEN | 0.61 | 0.59 | 0.54 |
CHI | 0.25 | 0.56 | 0.52 |
MIN | 0.43 | 0.40 | 0.52 |
PIT | 0.72 | 0.41 | 0.51 |
KC | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.51 |
NYG | 0.72 | 0.57 | 0.51 |
ATL | 0.45 | 0.57 | 0.49 |
DEN | 0.67 | 0.55 | 0.49 |
SF | 0.25 | 0.53 | 0.49 |
STL | 0.27 | 0.56 | 0.48 |
NO | 0.32 | 0.67 | 0.46 |
GB | 0.56 | 0.56 | 0.45 |
CIN | 0.60 | 0.61 | 0.45 |
ARI | 0.44 | 0.49 | 0.45 |
CLE | 0.54 | 0.57 | 0.45 |
TB | 0.81 | 0.49 | 0.44 |
SEA | 0.64 | 0.49 | 0.39 |
Baltimore has the toughest forthcoming schedule. In fact, the Ravens have a stretch when they play SD, NE, IND consecutively. They get a breather against Miami before facing SEA and PIT again. And the AFC North is without its traditional doormat, the Browns, who have already beat Baltimore once.
Although the Ravens are 4-2, they have not performed terribly well against very poor opponents so far this year, including the three worst teams in the worst division in the NFL--the NFC West.
The Ravens' defense will likely keep them in games, but unless there is significant offensive improvement, I expect a significant downturn. There will probably be lots of much-hyped "collapse" stories in the media. Billick will be on the hot seat again and journalists will ask if he has "lost the team." But the reality is this team isn't that good to begin with, and following their bye in week 8 their schedule becomes as brutal as it had been soft.