Playoff Probabilities Week 14

Courtesy of Chris at, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Miami 6122170
New England 951391
NY Jets 3027412
Buffalo 00397
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 871300
Baltimore 138700
Cleveland 00973
Cincinnati 00397
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 100000
Indianapolis 010000
Houston 00955
Jacksonville 00595
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 92800
San Diego 89200
Oakland 008614
Kansas City 001486
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 100000
Philadelphia 0483120
Washington 0303040
Dallas 0213840
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 623620
Chicago 3353140
Green Bay 412840
Detroit 000100
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Carolina 642790
Tampa Bay 2441341
Atlanta 12324314
New Orleans 001485
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100000
San Francisco 09820
Seattle 017622
St Louis 002278

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 81190000100
Pittsburgh 196700211100
Indianapolis 0000841498
Baltimore 01300136794
Denver 006860092
Miami 006010162
NY Jets 002550232
New England 00900514
San Diego 0008008
Buffalo 0000000
Cincinnati 0000000
Cleveland 0000000
Houston 0000000
Jacksonville 0000000
Kansas City 0000000
Oakland 0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
NY Giants 72270000100
Arizona 04732300100
Carolina 27360024996
Tampa Bay 02030281972
Minnesota 0118430062
Atlanta 01200281657
Chicago 004290033
Philadelphia 000062229
Washington 000051823
Dallas 000081321
Green Bay 0004004
New Orleans 0000022
Detroit 0000000
St Louis 0000000
San Francisco 0000000
Seattle 0000000

  • Spread The Love
  • Digg This Post
  • Tweet This Post
  • Stumble This Post
  • Submit This Post To Delicious
  • Submit This Post To Reddit
  • Submit This Post To Mixx

0 Response to “Playoff Probabilities Week 14”

Leave a Reply

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.