The updated Super Bowl probabilities are out. Despite the #1 vs. #2 match-ups in week 16, there aren't any big changes this week. The big drop-off between the top 5 and everyone else is mostly due to two factors: 1) just clinching a playoff spot, and 2) getting a first round bye. Team Conf Champ SB Champ 
39 20 
33 20 
35 15 
29 13 
25 15 
5 2 
5 2 
5 2 
3 1 
2 1 
2 1 
1 1 
1 1 
1 1
Thanks as always to NFL-Forecast.com.
Super Bowl Probabilities
published on 12/26/2008
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Do the bye teams' chances reflect any advantage beyond needing one fewer game? That is, is there any adjustment for the week off, on top of a normal home-field advantage?
Yes.