Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Jets 54 27 17 2 Miami 37 32 28 3 New England 9 38 47 7 Buffalo 0 3 9 88 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Pittsburgh 89 11 0 0 Baltimore 11 89 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 97 3 Cincinnati 0 0 3 97 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tennessee 100 0 0 0 Indianapolis 0 100 0 0 Houston 0 0 79 21 Jacksonville 0 0 21 79 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Denver 87 13 0 0 San Diego 13 86 1 0 Oakland 0 1 80 19 Kansas City 0 0 19 81 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NY Giants 100 0 0 0 Washington 0 50 32 18 Dallas 0 32 41 27 Philadelphia 0 18 27 55 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Minnesota 54 39 7 0 Chicago 28 36 35 0 Green Bay 18 25 58 0 Detroit 0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Tampa Bay 34 28 37 0 Carolina 35 34 29 3 Atlanta 31 37 26 6 New Orleans 0 1 8 91 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Arizona 100 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 78 20 2 Seattle 0 16 65 20 St Louis 0 6 15 79 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Tennessee 85 13 1 0 0 0 100 Pittsburgh 15 68 6 0 2 8 99 Indianapolis 0 0 0 0 85 11 97 Denver 0 0 5 82 0 0 87 Baltimore 0 10 1 0 10 55 76 NY Jets 0 7 43 4 2 10 65 Miami 0 1 36 0 0 7 44 New England 0 0 8 0 1 9 18 San Diego 0 0 0 13 0 0 13 Buffalo 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Oakland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Houston 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cincinnati 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Cleveland 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Jacksonville 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Kansas City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total Arizona 0 3 76 21 0 0 100 NY Giants 84 15 0 0 0 0 100 Carolina 12 23 0 0 27 18 80 Atlanta 1 28 2 0 27 16 74 Tampa Bay 3 30 1 0 18 21 73 Minnesota 0 1 17 37 0 0 54 Washington 0 0 0 0 15 21 37 Chicago 0 0 3 25 0 0 29 Dallas 0 0 0 0 11 15 27 Green Bay 0 0 0 17 0 0 18 Philadelphia 0 0 0 0 1 7 8 New Orleans 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 Detroit 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 St Louis 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 San Francisco 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Seattle 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Playoff Probabilities Week 13
published on 12/05/2008
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Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay are all forecasted to make the playoffs. Have 3 teams from the same division ever made the playoffs in the same year?
Sure. Dallas, Washington, and NY Giants all did it just last year.
As did 3 teams from the AFC south: Indy, Tenn, and Jax
Just to let everyone know, the software now includes predictions through the Super Bowl. Front runners are:
Giants 23.98%
Pittsburgh 18.12%
Tennessee 17.8%
Atlanta 12.4%
Carolina 9.9%
No one else is above 5%.