Playoff Probabilities Week 13

Courtesy of Chris at, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.

These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.

There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.

Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Jets 5427172
Miami 3732283
New England 938477
Buffalo 03988
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Pittsburgh 891100
Baltimore 118900
Cleveland 00973
Cincinnati 00397
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tennessee 100000
Indianapolis 010000
Houston 007921
Jacksonville 002179
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Denver 871300
San Diego 138610
Oakland 018019
Kansas City 001981
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
NY Giants 100000
Washington 0503218
Dallas 0324127
Philadelphia 0182755
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Minnesota 543970
Chicago 2836350
Green Bay 1825580
Detroit 000100
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Tampa Bay 3428370
Carolina 3534293
Atlanta 3137266
New Orleans 01891
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th
Arizona 100000
San Francisco 078202
Seattle 0166520
St Louis 061579

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Tennessee 85131000100
Pittsburgh 1568602899
Indianapolis 0000851197
Denver 005820087
Baltimore 01010105576
NY Jets 0743421065
Miami 013600744
New England 00801918
San Diego 000130013
Buffalo 0000011
Oakland 0000000
Houston 0000000
Cincinnati 0000000
Cleveland 0000000
Jacksonville 0000000
Kansas City 0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total
Arizona 03762100100
NY Giants 84150000100
Carolina 122300271880
Atlanta 12820271674
Tampa Bay 33010182173
Minnesota 0117370054
Washington 0000152137
Chicago 003250029
Dallas 0000111527
Green Bay 000170018
Philadelphia 0000178
New Orleans 0000011
Detroit 0000000
St Louis 0000000
San Francisco 0000000
Seattle 0000000

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4 Responses to “Playoff Probabilities Week 13”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Atlanta, Carolina, and Tampa Bay are all forecasted to make the playoffs. Have 3 teams from the same division ever made the playoffs in the same year?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    Sure. Dallas, Washington, and NY Giants all did it just last year.

  3. Anonymous says:

    As did 3 teams from the AFC south: Indy, Tenn, and Jax

  4. Anonymous says:

    Just to let everyone know, the software now includes predictions through the Super Bowl. Front runners are:

    Giants 23.98%
    Pittsburgh 18.12%
    Tennessee 17.8%
    Atlanta 12.4%
    Carolina 9.9%

    No one else is above 5%.

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