Courtesy of Chris at NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff probabilities for each team.
These are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed.AFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th MIA
56 19 25 0 NE
9 55 36 0 NYJ
35 26 39 0 BUF
0 0 0 100 AFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th PIT
100 0 0 0 BAL
0 100 0 0 CLE
0 0 78 22 CIN
0 0 22 78 AFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th TEN
100 0 0 0 IND
0 100 0 0 HOU
0 0 98 2 JAX
0 0 2 98 AFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th DEN
90 10 0 0 SD
10 90 0 0 OAK
0 0 93 7 KC
0 0 7 93 NFC EAST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th NYG
100 0 0 0 DAL
0 50 41 10 PHI
0 50 40 10 WAS
0 0 20 80 NFC NORTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th MIN
84 16 0 0 CHI
16 84 0 0 GB
0 0 100 0 DET
0 0 0 100 NFC SOUTH Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th CAR
80 12 8 0 TB
11 49 41 0 ATL
10 39 52 0 NO
0 0 0 100 NFC WEST Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th ARI
100 0 0 0 SF
0 98 2 0 SEA
0 2 97 1 STL
0 0 1 99 AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total TEN
52 48 0 0 0 0 100 PIT
48 52 0 0 0 0 100 IND
0 0 0 0 92 7 99 DEN
0 0 2 88 0 0 90 BAL
0 0 0 0 6 70 76 MIA
0 0 56 0 0 2 58 NYJ
0 0 33 2 0 5 40 NE
0 0 9 0 2 16 27 SD
0 0 0 10 0 0 10 NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding Team 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th Total NYG
50 44 6 0 0 0 100 ARI
0 0 11 89 0 0 100 CAR
50 27 2 0 10 9 99 MIN
0 8 65 11 0 0 84 ATL
0 10 0 0 30 29 69 TB
0 11 0 0 31 23 65 DAL
0 0 0 0 23 18 41 PHI
0 0 0 0 6 20 26 CHI
0 0 16 0 0 0 16
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Playoff Probabilities Week 15
By
Brian Burke
published on 12/18/2008
in
playoff forecasts
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