Roundup 10/16/10

NFL Forecast has fresh playoff probabilities.

Peter King smartly uses efficiency stats (and not total yards or points--awesome!) to diagnose the Saints' troubles this year.

What are the odds?

I recently read this over at Cold Hard Football Facts: "Running is part of football. Always has been, and always will be. The problem from an analysis standpoint is that no one has come up with a way to demonstrate how running helps teams win. But that’s a shortcoming of NFL analysts, not a shortcoming of the running game." Hopefully, now there is one fewer shortcoming.

Platooning QBs? One year when I was at Navy we did that. We had one QB who was a passer who played between the 20s, and one guy who was the runner to played near the goal lines. I think we went 1-10 that year, with the only win against Army.

Last week was a bad one for #1 pick QBs.

Don't sleep on the Titans this season.

Over at the Community site, Chris Alan gives updates his analysis on surviving in a suicide league. Have your own research or analysis you'd like to share? Send it in to Advanced NFL Stats Community.

Dave Berri ranks the QBs so far.

Lost in the Jets victory last Monday night was a huge blunder in clock management. Rex Ryan explains.

Chris at Smart Football discusses the modern sports gossip industry.

The Saints gave the boot to John Carney for missing a 29-yarder and go back to Garrett Hartley, the kicker they benched for missing a single short FG a couple weeks ago. One short comment at PFT says it all: The QB throws 3 interceptions, so fire the kicker. An interception is typically worth about -4 EP, but a missed short FG is worth more like -2 EP, depending on the range. Brees' 4 interceptions were worth -12 net points. Coaches need to keep some sort of perspective when it comes to kickers. They would benefit from a 15 minute lesson on the dangers of making decisions based on very small samples.

My coworker bet me I couldn't punt an NFL ball 30 yards, gross, not net. It sounds a whole lot easier than it is. First try, no practice--30.1 yards. He made me do it again into the wind. After a couple shanks, I did it again. Video post to follow.

Mel Kiper's name was unfairly dragged into a sordid story this week. Mel is genuinely nice guy who does what he does because he loves it, not for fame, favors, or money. He'll talk to you at the Safeway about draft prospects the same way he'll talk to Chris Berman live on draft day. He's got my 9-year old son pegged as a middle second-day pick, and he doesn't even have an agent yet.

Mark Sanchez had an off-game against the Ravens in week 1. Here's the explanation.

The backwards-bending supply curve, aka "Life is short."

Tomlinson is having a resurgent year.

Kyle Orton is on pace to break the passing yardage record this year. In fact, at this point in every season, there are players on a trajectory to break this record or that record. Those trajectories, however, ignore gravity. Unfortunately for Orton and others, there's no such thing as on pace thanks to regression to the mean. Ever notice how many batters are hitting .400 or on track to hit 70+ HRs in May, but come September they're nowhere close?

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3 Responses to “Roundup 10/16/10”

  1. Borat says:


    Borat haves a statement and two question for Brain.

    Full disclosure requires that you tell at least your premium subscribers that you've known Mel Kiper since you were 9 years old and he had you pegged as a late first day pick. That's how accurate Mel Kiper has been.

    When you meet Mel Kiper at the Safeway is it in the Mens Hair Care aisle?

    I see your picture in the Washingtons Past. What the hell are you even doing in the Mens Hair Care aisle at Safeway?

  2. Brian Burke says:

    I consider myself a late 8th round pick. I was in the toupee-care isle

  3. James says:

    From the Sanchez/Ravens article: "We had some calls in there where we send Mark to the line with two plays, and he runs a play dependent on what defense he sees... He just wanted to have a play called and let him execute it."

    Is it just me, or did he basically say Sanchez admits he can't read a defense and know what play would better against it?

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