Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also lead-in with a short discussion of how home field advantage affects different types of match-ups.
Game Probabilities - Week 5
published on 10/07/2010
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Does the Eagles game reflect that they have Kolb in, not Vick and the Vikings/Moss?
Nope. The model has no idea who is playing what position or for what team.
Given that the home team wins 57% of the time, does it make sense for the win probability graphs to start at 57% for the home team?
Cleveland .72 over Atlanta? I don't think that's right...
Maybe. The big reason is that ATL has had a very soft schedule (0.40) compared to CLE (0.55).
I wonder if the schedule explains GB .33 against WAS .67. Green Bay has won more, and they have been much better at scoring and almost equal in keeping the opposition from scoring. The yardage situation with GB is not that impressive, but 1:2 is still pretty steep for odds.