Game Probabilities - Week 5

Weekly game probabilities are available now at the Fifth Down. This week I also lead-in with a short discussion of how home field advantage affects different types of match-ups.

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6 Responses to “Game Probabilities - Week 5”

  1. Anonymous says:

    Does the Eagles game reflect that they have Kolb in, not Vick and the Vikings/Moss?

  2. James says:

    Nope. The model has no idea who is playing what position or for what team.

  3. Dave says:

    Given that the home team wins 57% of the time, does it make sense for the win probability graphs to start at 57% for the home team?

  4. MattyP says:

    Cleveland .72 over Atlanta? I don't think that's right...

  5. Brian Burke says:

    Maybe. The big reason is that ATL has had a very soft schedule (0.40) compared to CLE (0.55).

  6. Jussi says:

    I wonder if the schedule explains GB .33 against WAS .67. Green Bay has won more, and they have been much better at scoring and almost equal in keeping the opposition from scoring. The yardage situation with GB is not that impressive, but 1:2 is still pretty steep for odds.

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