Jeff Garcia in Tampa

The Buccaneers have been on a slide since their Super Bowl win in 2002. Although their actual records since then seem slightly erratic, their expected wins based on their internal efficiency stats tell a different story. They have been in consistent decline since the end of the 2002 season.

Although Bruce Gradkowski did well enough for a young back-up QB thrust into the starting roll on a losing team, he still performed well below average ranking 33 of 45 QBs. With the addition of Jeff Garcia, Tampa Bay can expect a boost assuming Garcia can perform as well as he did in Philadelphia in 2006.

Gradkowski performed well enough to contribute -0.70 QB wins added in 2006, while Garcia contributed +1.83 QB wins added.

PlayerCmp% RankInt

Sk RankWins AddedTotal


Prior to the change in QB, the TB win projection stood at approximately 5 games for 2007. Doing some simple math, we can project TB is expected to win:

5 -(-0.2) + (+2.3) = 7.5 wins

I admit that this projection is based on some optimistic notions. It assumes Garcia stays healthy and plays as well for 16 games in TB as he did over a short 6-game stint on a talented Eagle team. Then again, he could play even better. The bottom line is: look for TB to improve significantly, from a 5 win team to about a 7 win team, mostly on the basis of their upgrade at QB.

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