QB Wins Added 3

Recently, I began constructing a passer rating system that, to the greatest degree possible, includes performance variables controlled by the quarterback alone and avoids redundant use of variables that measure the same attribute. This improved system includes completion percentage, interception rate, and sack yards per attempt. The previous two posts discussed completion percentage and interception rate. This post will examine sacks. Each of the stats used in the rating system are computed in terms of how many wins they add, on average, to a QB's team over the course of a season. The wins added are based on the previously established regression model based on team efficieny stats.

More and more, I'm coming to realize that sacks are far more dependent on the quarterback than on his pass protection. A quarterback's mobility, release, decision-making, and pocket presence all are critically important. I'm using sack yardage rate instead of total absolute sacks for two reasons. First, the number of pass attempts must be accounted for. We would expect a QB with more pass attempts to be sacked more often than a QB who passes less often, given equal abilities to prevent sacks. Second, sack yards yield more information about the QB than sacks alone. Some QBs have fewer sacks, but because they often gamble by scrambling deep in the backfield, they give up large numbers of sack yards. Does the QB tend to step up in the pocket or drift backward? As you'll see, some of the QBs considered the most mobile actually give up some of the most sack yards.

The table below lists each quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts in 2006, their sack yards, and their sack yardage rates (sack yards per pass attempt). The column labeled "Sk Yd Rate > Avg" is the sack yardage rate above (or below) league average. The next column, "+Sk Yd Wins" lists the wins added based on sack yards for each quarterback. The list is sorted in order of best to worst.

Player	Sk Yds	Sk Yd Rate	SkYdRate > Avg	+Sk Wins
Peyton Manning	86	0.15	-0.28	0.44
Tim Rattay	18	0.17	-0.26	0.41
Steve McNair	84	0.17	-0.26	0.41
Drew Brees	105	0.18	-0.25	0.39
Jeff Garcia	40	0.21	-0.23	0.36
Brett Favre	134	0.21	-0.22	0.35
Byron Leftwich	48	0.25	-0.18	0.29
Jason Campbell	55	0.26	-0.18	0.28
Rex Grossman	142	0.28	-0.15	0.24
Joey Harrington	116	0.29	-0.15	0.23
Chris Simms	32	0.29	-0.14	0.22
Philip Rivers	144	0.30	-0.14	0.22
Tom Brady	175	0.32	-0.11	0.17
Jake Plummer	111	0.33	-0.10	0.16
Chad Pennington	172	0.33	-0.10	0.16
Vince Young	129	0.34	-0.10	0.15
Mark Brunell	92	0.34	-0.10	0.15
Eli Manning	186	0.34	-0.09	0.15
Tony Romo	124	0.35	-0.09	0.14
Jake Delhomme	167	0.37	-0.07	0.10
Matt Leinart	158	0.40	-0.04	0.06
Damon Huard	106	0.41	-0.03	0.04
Bruce Gradkowski	146	0.41	-0.02	0.03
Donovan McNabb	140	0.42	-0.02	0.03
Carson Palmer	233	0.42	-0.01	0.02
Alex Smith	202	0.42	-0.01	0.02
Brad Johnson	200	0.43	-0.01	0.01
David Garrard	119	0.46	0.02	-0.03
David Carr	240	0.50	0.06	-0.10
Derek Anderson	66	0.53	0.09	-0.15
Seneca Wallace	83	0.54	0.10	-0.16
Ben Roethlisberger	280	0.54	0.11	-0.17
Matt Hasselbeck	229	0.57	0.13	-0.21
Jay Cutler	85	0.57	0.13	-0.21
Kurt Warner	104	0.57	0.14	-0.22
Trent Green	127	0.57	0.14	-0.22
Marc Bulger	366	0.57	0.14	-0.22
Drew Bledsoe	107	0.58	0.14	-0.23
Jon Kitna	388	0.59	0.15	-0.24
Charlie Frye	262	0.60	0.17	-0.26
J.P. Losman	332	0.70	0.26	-0.41
Michael Vick	303	0.70	0.27	-0.42
Andrew Walter	256	0.80	0.36	-0.57
Aaron Brooks	174	0.80	0.36	-0.57
Daunte Culpepper	150	0.97	0.53	-0.84
Average	155.9	0.43