QB Wins Added 1

In this series of posts I'm going to build a better quarterback rating system. The system will be try to isolate the passing stats that the QB alone is primarily accountable for. The stats will be efficiency stats in that they are in terms of attempts. The system will also attempt to exclude redundancy stats.

The official Passer Rating system includes co-dependent factors such as TDs, interceptions, and completion percentage. But an accurate QB will tend to have both a high completion rate and high TDs. The passer rating, therefore, double counts accuracy. Further, a QB's passing TDs may be due to his defense's ability to get the ball turned over to him in his oppenents' territory, or due to an effective running game, as much as due to his own ability. The goal is to isolate what the QB is truly responsible for and filter out what the QB does not control.

The system will include completion percentage, interceptions per attempt, and sack yards per pass attempt. Although interceptions and sacks are not solely attributable to the QB, the stats imply that the QB is overwhelmingly responsible for them. Take the case of McNair in Baltimore. After replacing Kyle Boller, Baltimore went from one of the league's worst sack rates to one of the best. The rest of the offense, including the offensive line, was completely identical.

Each stat in the system will be translated into team wins by the efficiency win model previously established. In the first post we'll rank quarterbacks in terms of their 2006 regulare season completion percentage. We'll compute how many percentage points above or below average each QB was last year. All other factors being equal, every additional point of completion percentage brings an extra 0.18 wins to a team on average. Therefore we can compute how many wins each QB contributed to his team by his completion percentage alone.

(Only QBs with more than 100 attempts are considered.)

PlayerComp PctPct > AvgWins Added
David Carr68.38.891.60
Tony Romo65.35.891.06
Peyton Manning65.05.591.01
Chad Pennington64.55.090.92
Charlie Frye64.34.890.88
Kurt Warner64.34.890.88
Drew Brees64.34.890.88
Steve McNair63.03.590.65
Marc Bulger62.93.490.63
J.P. Losman62.53.090.56
Jon Kitna62.42.990.54
Carson Palmer62.32.890.52
Mark Brunell62.32.890.52
Tom Brady61.82.390.43
Philip Rivers61.72.290.41
Jeff Garcia61.72.290.41
Brad Johnson61.52.090.38
Trent Green61.11.690.30
Jake Delhomme61.01.590.29
Damon Huard60.71.290.23
Daunte Culpepper60.40.990.18
Tim Rattay60.40.990.18
David Garrard60.20.790.14
Ben Roethlisberger59.70.290.05
Jay Cutler59.1-0.31-0.06
Byron Leftwich59.0-0.41-0.07
Seneca Wallace58.2-1.21-0.22
Alex Smith58.1-1.31-0.24
Eli Manning57.7-1.71-0.31
Joey Harrington57.5-1.91-0.34
Aaron Brooks57.3-2.11-0.38
Donovan McNabb57.0-2.41-0.43
Matt Leinart56.8-2.61-0.47
Matt Hasselbeck56.6-2.81-0.51
Derek Anderson56.4-3.01-0.54
Brett Favre56.0-3.41-0.61
Jake Plummer55.2-4.21-0.76
Chris Simms54.7-4.71-0.85
Rex Grossman54.6-4.81-0.87
Bruce Gradkowski54.0-5.41-0.97
Andrew Walter53.3-6.11-1.10
Drew Bledsoe53.3-6.11-1.10
Jason Campbell53.1-6.31-1.14
Michael Vick52.6-6.81-1.23
Vince Young51.5-7.91-1.42

In the next post, I examine interception rate. Then in the third part of this this article, I'll look at sack yardage rate. Finally, I'll sum the wins added for each QB to produce a more valid passer rating system.

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1 Responses to “QB Wins Added 1”

  1. Anonymous says:

    I knew Vince Young was overrated!

    [sarcasm]Oh, wait! He has not peaked yet! He has not hit his 3rd, 4th year![/sarcasm]

    - DMax

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