Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. Projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (Adj GWP). Total wins account for current and projected wins. Methodology can be found here.
| Team | Adj GWP | Current | Projected |
| AFC E | |||
| NE | 0.79 | 4 | 13.5 |
| MIA | 0.43 | 0 | 5.2 |
| BUF | 0.32 | 1 | 4.8 |
| NYJ | 0.26 | 1 | 4.1 |
| AFC N | |||
| PIT | 0.61 | 3 | 10.3 |
| CIN | 0.55 | 1 | 7.6 |
| CLE | 0.32 | 2 | 5.8 |
| BAL | 0.30 | 2 | 5.6 |
| AFC S | |||
| IND | 0.92 | 4 | 15.0 |
| JAX | 0.70 | 2 | 11.1 |
| TEN | 0.64 | 2 | 10.3 |
| HOU | 0.53 | 2 | 8.4 |
| AFC W | |||
| DEN | 0.86 | 2 | 12.3 |
| KC | 0.44 | 2 | 7.3 |
| OAK | 0.41 | 2 | 6.9 |
| SD | 0.23 | 1 | 3.8 |
| NFC E | |||
| DAL | 0.78 | 4 | 13.3 |
| WAS | 0.61 | 2 | 9.9 |
| NYG | 0.65 | 2 | 9.8 |
| PHI | 0.65 | 1 | 8.7 |
| NFC N | |||
| GB | 0.50 | 4 | 10.0 |
| DET | 0.42 | 3 | 8.0 |
| MIN | 0.42 | 1 | 6.0 |
| CHI | 0.14 | 1 | 2.6 |
| NFC S | |||
| TB | 0.75 | 3 | 12.0 |
| CAR | 0.26 | 2 | 5.1 |
| ATL | 0.29 | 1 | 4.5 |
| NO | 0.26 | 0 | 3.4 |
| NFC W | |||
| SS | 0.82 | 3 | 12.8 |
| ARI | 0.59 | 2 | 9.0 |
| SF | 0.23 | 2 | 4.7 |
| STL | 0.18 | 0 | 2.1 |
For now, the projections don't account for future strength of schedule. At this point only 4 games into the season, you should pay more attention to the relative ranking of each team than the projected win total. Further into the season, the projections will account for future opponent strength.
