Season win totals and division standing projections are listed below. As before, projections are based on each team's opponent-adjusted generic win probability (GWP). But starting this week, the projections now account for future opponent strength. Total wins account for current and projected wins. Methodology can be found here.
| Team | Proj GWP | Proj Wins |
| AFC E | ||
| NE | 0.87 | 14.7 |
| BUF | 0.39 | 5.3 |
| NYJ | 0.32 | 4.2 |
| MIA | 0.31 | 3.1 |
| AFC N | ||
| PIT | 0.70 | 11.7 |
| CLE | 0.59 | 8.9 |
| CIN | 0.65 | 8.1 |
| BAL | 0.30 | 7.0 |
| AFC S | ||
| IND | 0.85 | 14.4 |
| JAX | 0.64 | 11.1 |
| TEN | 0.57 | 9.2 |
| HOU | 0.50 | 9.0 |
| AFC W | ||
| DEN | 0.68 | 9.5 |
| SD | 0.55 | 8.5 |
| KC | 0.51 | 8.1 |
| OAK | 0.28 | 5.1 |
| NFC E | ||
| DAL | 0.73 | 12.3 |
| NYG | 0.72 | 11.2 |
| WAS | 0.63 | 9.9 |
| PHI | 0.63 | 8.9 |
| NFC N | ||
| GB | 0.61 | 11.1 |
| MIN | 0.41 | 6.5 |
| DET | 0.31 | 6.4 |
| CHI | 0.24 | 4.4 |
| NFC S | ||
| TB | 0.84 | 12.4 |
| CAR | 0.37 | 7.7 |
| ATL | 0.46 | 5.6 |
| NO | 0.35 | 4.9 |
| NFC W | ||
| SS | 0.73 | 10.3 |
| ARI | 0.49 | 7.9 |
| SF | 0.26 | 4.9 |
| STL | 0.29 | 2.9 |
If the playoffs started today, BAL (4-2), KC (3-3), CAR (4-2), and AZ (3-3) would be in, instead of your picks: TN (3-2), DEN (2-3), WAS (3-2), and SEA (3-3).
Looks like tough schedules will knock out BAL (.61 Fut Opp GWP) and CAR (.57), while SEA (.39) will take advantage of an easy schedule. KC and AZ appear to be mediocre teams in weak divisions. The interesting teams are DEN (projected 8-3 over their final 11 games), WAS (7-4), and TN (6-5). Can they turn their exhibited efficiencies into W's?