Game probabilities for week 16 NFL games are listed below. The probabilities are based on an efficiency win model explained here and here. The model considers offensive and defensive efficiency stats including running, passing, sacks, turnover rates, and penalty rates. Team stats are adjusted for previous opponent strength.
Vprob | Visitor | Home | Hprob |
0.75 | PIT | STL | 0.25 |
0.84 | DAL | CAR | 0.16 |
0.48 | CLE | CIN | 0.52 |
0.82 | GB | CHI | 0.18 |
0.10 | HOU | IND | 0.90 |
0.45 | KC | DET | 0.55 |
0.04 | MIA | NE | 0.96 |
0.44 | NYG | BUF | 0.56 |
0.09 | OAK | JAX | 0.91 |
0.60 | PHI | NO | 0.40 |
0.41 | WAS | MIN | 0.59 |
0.47 | ATL | ARI | 0.53 |
0.18 | BAL | SEA | 0.82 |
0.29 | NYJ | TEN | 0.71 |
0.93 | TB | SF | 0.07 |
0.29 | DEN | SD | 0.71 |
Interesting. Your system likes Cincinnati, like DVOA, even though it seems like they suck.
True. Cin and Cle are very similar teams good O, bad D. Cle is slightly better, but the difference in the prediction this week is home field advantage. It's basically a toss-up.
So, what happen with the TB vs. SF game? I will tell you what happen - Shaun Hill! Go Niners!