NFL team efficiency rankings are listed below in terms of generic winning probability. The GWP is the probability a team would beat the league average team at a neutral site. Each team's opponent's average GWP is also listed, which can be considered to-date strength of schedule. GWP modifies the generic win probability to reflect the strength of past opponents. Offensive ranking (O Rank) is based on each team's offensive GWP, i.e. it's the team's GWP assuming it had a league-average defense. D Rank is vice-versa. Rankings are based on a logistic regression model applied to data through week 14. A full explanation of the methodology can be found here.
Rank | Team | Last Wk | GWP | Opp GWP | O Rank | D Rank |
1 | NE | 1 | 0.89 | 0.55 | 1 | 5 |
2 | IND | 3 | 0.87 | 0.54 | 4 | 1 |
3 | DAL | 2 | 0.82 | 0.49 | 2 | 6 |
4 | TB | 4 | 0.76 | 0.48 | 6 | 7 |
5 | JAX | 6 | 0.72 | 0.55 | 3 | 13 |
6 | GB | 7 | 0.70 | 0.48 | 5 | 12 |
7 | SEA | 8 | 0.68 | 0.40 | 11 | 8 |
8 | PIT | 5 | 0.67 | 0.46 | 14 | 3 |
9 | SD | 9 | 0.64 | 0.52 | 15 | 4 |
10 | PHI | 10 | 0.58 | 0.54 | 8 | 21 |
11 | MIN | 11 | 0.57 | 0.45 | 10 | 15 |
12 | DEN | 15 | 0.56 | 0.49 | 7 | 23 |
13 | TEN | 14 | 0.55 | 0.53 | 24 | 2 |
14 | NYG | 12 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 19 | 10 |
15 | WAS | 13 | 0.51 | 0.54 | 20 | 9 |
16 | BUF | 17 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 16 | 14 |
17 | CLE | 16 | 0.47 | 0.47 | 9 | 29 |
18 | HOU | 18 | 0.46 | 0.50 | 17 | 26 |
19 | NYJ | 19 | 0.44 | 0.53 | 21 | 22 |
20 | CIN | 20 | 0.43 | 0.51 | 12 | 30 |
21 | NO | 24 | 0.41 | 0.50 | 13 | 32 |
22 | BAL | 21 | 0.36 | 0.51 | 25 | 16 |
23 | ARI | 22 | 0.36 | 0.44 | 22 | 19 |
24 | ATL | 25 | 0.34 | 0.49 | 18 | 28 |
25 | KC | 23 | 0.32 | 0.53 | 31 | 11 |
26 | DET | 30 | 0.31 | 0.52 | 23 | 18 |
27 | CAR | 27 | 0.31 | 0.49 | 30 | 17 |
28 | MIA | 26 | 0.29 | 0.54 | 27 | 25 |
29 | STL | 28 | 0.28 | 0.46 | 29 | 20 |
30 | OAK | 29 | 0.26 | 0.46 | 26 | 27 |
31 | CHI | 31 | 0.25 | 0.52 | 28 | 31 |
32 | SF | 32 | 0.14 | 0.45 | 32 | 24 |