Courtesy of NFL-Forecast.com, here are the latest playoff forecasts. The tables below do not include results from this week's Thursday game.
The Ravens have strengthened their position in the AFC, while the battle in the NFC appears to be between the Giants and Cowboys.
These playoff probabilities are calculated using the NFL-Forecast software mini-app that runs thousands of simulated seasons. The outcomes are based on game-by-game probabilities with every crazy tie-breaking scenario factored in. Chris has used the probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats as his default game probabilities for the past two seasons.
There are two tables below. The first lists the probability that each team will finish in each place in their division. The second table lists the overall playoff probabilities, broken down by seed. The probabilities are rounded as percentages to make the table easier to read.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 89 | 9 | 2 | 0 |
 NYJ | 4 | 57 | 39 | 1 |
 MIA | 8 | 34 | 58 | 1 |
 BUF | 0 | 0 | 2 | 98 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CIN | 97 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
 BAL | 3 | 90 | 7 | 0 |
 PIT | 0 | 7 | 93 | 0 |
 CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 IND | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 JAC | 0 | 69 | 23 | 8 |
 TEN | 0 | 17 | 47 | 36 |
 HOU | 0 | 14 | 29 | 57 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SD | 94 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
 DEN | 6 | 94 | 0 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 0 | 88 | 12 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 12 | 88 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 PHI | 76 | 21 | 3 | 0 |
 DAL | 21 | 30 | 49 | 0 |
 NYG | 3 | 49 | 49 | 0 |
 WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 MIN | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 GB | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 |
 CHI | 0 | 0 | 100 | 0 |
 DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NO | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 ATL | 0 | 86 | 14 | 0 |
 CAR | 0 | 14 | 86 | 0 |
 TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ARI | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 SF | 2 | 96 | 2 | 0 |
 SEA | 0 | 2 | 98 | 0 |
 STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| IND | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| SD | 0 | 87 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 100 |
| CIN | 0 | 7 | 35 | 55 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
| NE | 0 | 2 | 53 | 33 | 0 | 3 | 91 |
| DEN | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 72 | 19 | 97 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 17 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 35 | 55 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 21 | 25 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| NO | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| MIN | 2 | 86 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 100 |
| PHI | 0 | 10 | 61 | 4 | 7 | 14 | 96 |
| ARI | 0 | 1 | 20 | 77 | 0 | 0 | 98 |
| GB | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 83 | 13 | 98 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 9 | 13 | 1 | 28 | 50 |
| NYG | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 38 | 49 |
| SF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 8 |
| ATL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
If the Vikings have a 2% chance of coming in second in the NFC North and a 100% chance of making the playoffs, then shouldn't they have a 2% chance of getting the 5th (or 6th) seed, rather than 1%?
My guess would be that the probability of a 5 seed for the Vikings is between 1% and 1.49% which rounds to 1%. The probability of a 6 seed must be less than .5% and therefore it is not shown in the NFC Seeding Chart. If the probability of the 5th and 6th seeds are summed they'd be greater than 1.5% and rounded to the 2% value in the NFC North chart.
So running my own simulations with the software, it would seem that the Jets *absolutely need* Pittsburgh to off Miami in week 17. Sweeping alone isn't enough.
Vikings can actually get a number 6th seed.
If:
1. Vikings lose all their remaining games to go (11-5).
2. Green Bay wins all of their remaining games to go (12-4).
3. Dallas also wins all remaining games to go (11-5).
4. Philadelphia wins two of remaining three games (losing only the last to Dallas) to go 11-5.
In this case, Dallas wins the NFC East division tiebreaker as they have already beat the Eagles this season. Vikings/Eagles would tie in conference record (9-3 each), while Eagles would then take the 'common games' category as vs. 49ers, Bears, Giants, Panthers the Eagles would be 5-0 while Vikings would be 2-3.
Even if the Vikings suffer this epic collapse (which seems pretty unlikely the way they are playing and the way Carolina and the Packers are playing) Dallas has to beat the Saints this week, while Green Bay travels to Pittsburgh AND Arizona. Philly has also got to beat Denver though that's at home so slightly more likely!
Chris, why would the Jets need Miami to lose week 17? The Phins play 7-loss teams in weeks 15 and 16, couldn't the Jets be fine if the Phins lost one of those two games instead?
Oh maybe. It's annoyingly slow to rerun some of these simulations. I guess I wasn't very thorough.
I'm surprised you have the Patriots as a 53-35 favorite to win the #3 seed over the Bengals. Right now the Bengals have a 1-game lead and they have a better record in Conference and Common games. This must be based purely on power ratings and strength of remaining schedule. Also, the Bengals could really make things interesting by beating the Chargers this week.