Weekly game probabilities are available now at the nytimes.com Fifth Down. This week I also lead-in with a short discussion of how the Giants defense has outshined that of the Jets. I also shamelessly tout the prediction model's performance from last week.
Game Probabilities - Week 6
published on 10/14/2010
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Why is Dallas / Min a toss-up? Dallas and Min are 5th & 16th in the efficiency rankings respectively, but you have Min as a slight favorite. Is that all home field advantage?
Brian,
Do your Dolphin-Packer probabilities account for the personnel losses on the Green Bay side, or is that somewhat outside the scope of the win probabilities?
Ty in Green Bay
Yup. HFA.
Ty-Nope. Purely team-level stats. But the loss of Clay Matthews is huge. He was having an incredible year. Any news on when he can come back?
Speaking of injuries, I think this will also play a large role in the Jets, Broncos game. The Broncos are out 5 defenders which should give the jets a pretty big edge.
I think the thinking on Lombardi Avenue is that Matthews will play. I'll bet that the hamstring gives out again in the future though. He plays like a bat out of hell.
Aaron Rodgers was also iffy but now it sounds like he is "progressing". The drop off from him to Matt Flynn would be like the dropoff from Johnny Carson to Joan Rivers.