Aaron Rodgers Keeps Rolling

Although the Packers may very well have looked mortal Sunday against the Giants, Aaron Rodgers's Olympian season continued. The Packers' quarterback completed 28 of his 46 passes for 369 yards against New York, including four touchdowns.  Rodgers did throw his fifth interception of the season, but despite the blemish, he went on to finish with a week-high +0.94 WPA and a 26.0 EPA, trailing only Cam Newton's 27.3 against Tampa Bay. Only Rodgers's 29-for-38, 408 yard, six touchdown game against Denver saw a better EPA, and Rodgers's first fourth-quarter game-winning drive of the year resulted in by far his best WPA of the season.

With the performance, Rodgers widened the statistical gap between himself and the rest of the league. His 209.9 expected points added gives him a 43.1 point advantage on second place Drew Brees and his 5.10 WPA gives him a 0.38 lead on second place Tom Brady. We are getting to the point with Rodgers's fantastic season where the 2011 season alone isn't sufficient for comparison -- his 7.9 adjusted yards per attempt is the highest in our sample (dating back to 2006), and his counting statistics are catching up to the best seasons of the new millennium.

For a larger version, click here.

Despite only playing 75% of the season so far, Rodgers has already eclipsed all but three quarterback seasons since 2000 in terms of expected points added. If he keeps up his current rate of roughly 17 EPA per game, Rodgers will end up at 279.9, about 16 points better than Tom Brady's legendary 2007 season (50 TD, 8 INT, 4,806 yards).  It could only take Rodgers one more game to move into second place, surpassing Peyton Manning's 2004 season (49 TDs, 10 INT, 4,559 yards).

Every broadcast of a Packers game from here on out is likely to mention his pursuit of single-season records in passer rating, touchdowns, and completion percentage. Go ahead and add expected points added to that list as well.

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6 Responses to “Aaron Rodgers Keeps Rolling”

  1. Anonymous says:

    If Rogers keeps this up, he may give Tebow a run for his money as best player in football.

    On second thought, Rogers has a long way to go. Still needs to work on intangibles to be mentioned in the same sentence as Tebow.

  2. Anonymous says:

    It is worth pointing out that Drew Brees has already accumulated more EPA than every quarterback in 2000, 2001, 2002, 2003 and 2010 despite also being only 75% of the season.

  3. Anonymous says:

    Rodgers having a remarkable season? More Like Matt Flynn is.

    What your failing to take into account is Matt Flynn's LEADERSHIP qualities. If you even watched the games, you'd realize that every player has upped their level since Matt Flynn joined the packers.. they're not just playing with him, they're playing FOR HIM. He is INSPIRING the guys on both sides of the ball to win games because they know with him on the sidelines, they can't lose.

    I mean look at Aaron Rodger's numbers BEFORE Flynn joined in 2008... not good at all, in fact two of his seasons he had a passer rating UNDER 50. Now look at his numbers... hmmm I wonder what the difference could be? Here's a hint kid: It's Matt Flynn.

    Stay delusional though. Every week all I hear is how Matt Flynn can't complete passes, can't rush, and can't make smart reads from the bench. And every week he comes away with another W, and all you haters search for another excuse. "Hurr Durr it wasn't Flynn it was Rodgers, no wait the refs, no wait the opposing offense sucks, no wait his defense bailed him out, etc". So what's it going to be next week after the Flynn-led Packers crush another team? The sun was in the safeties eyes? I guess you guys will grasp at any straw in order to avoid giving credit to Flynn for the victory. But that's all Flynn knows how to do... WIN. And guess what? The guy is a great person and teammate. After every game Matt always gives all the credit to his teammates and coaches, talk about humble. I think a lot of players in the NFL could learn from a guy like Flynn, both on and off the field. So sad that you guys want to hate on him just for being a good guy. Really says a lot about your character.

  4. Matt W. says:

    Who was the guy on the far left of the chart in 2002?

  5. Anonymous says:

    David Carr is the guy on the far left; the data are downloadable by clicking on the chart.

  6. Anonymous says:

    Interesting, one QB leading the league, headed for many top 10 season records, oh and 12-0; and another with mediocre stats buoyed by his defense.

    From Google analytics you might mix them up.

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