Playoff Probabilities: Week 16

With just two weeks left to play, it's crunch time for the teams on the playoff bubble. As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to simulate the NFL season thousands of times. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Amazingly, 22 teams are still eligible for a playoff spot. Seven have clinched. Five "control their own destiny." The remaining ten—most of which sit on the brink of elimination this week—need various degrees of help to get into the postseason.

High Leverage Games of the Week

New York Giants at New York Jets | Saturday, December 24 | 1:00 pm ET
Philadelphia at Dallas | Saturday, December 24 | 4:15 pm ET

The seasons of all four of these teams hang in the balance of these two games. The Cowboys, Giants, and Eagles all remain in contention for the division title in the NFC East, and the Jets are currently holding on to the last wild card spot in the AFC (the Ravens/Steelers have the #5 seed locked up between them). As far as the NFC East goes, the results of these two games are so inextricably linked that it only makes sense to look at them together. The table below lists each team's respective probability of making the playoffs given each of the four possible combinations of game outcomes.

	NYG Win		NYJ Win
	PHI Win	DAL Win	PHI Win	DAL Win
PHI	0	0	44	0
DAL	41	46	41	100
NYG	59	59	15	0
NYJ	19	19	59	60

As you can see, the result of the Eagles-Cowboys game won't have much of an impact if the Giants win—the Eagles will be eliminated and the NFC East will come down to the final showdown between the Giants and Cowboys in Week 17. (Though if the Cowboys beat the Eagles, Dallas gets a bit of an insurance policy, retaining an 8% probability of sneaking into a wild card berth if they end up losing the division.)

If the Giants lose, however, the division race shifts dramatically, and the Eagles-Cowboys game becomes the determinative factor. If Dallas wins, the Cowboys would clinch the division, but an Eagles win would actually make Philadelphia the slight favorite over the Cowboys to win the East, with the Giants needing both a win and an Eagles loss to the Redskins in Week 17 in order to make it into the playoffs—a probability of only 15%.

While the Eagles' chances at a playoff berth are slim, if they do make it into the playoffs they have a fairly decent shot at putting together a run, with a 30% chance of making it to the NFC Championship game (including a 6% probability of their first ever Super Bowl win.)

Of course, the Jets have their own playoff race to think about, as they now must scramble to defend the #6 spot from the Bengals (38% probability), Titans (3%), and three-quarters of the AFC West (everyone but Kansas City), which collectively have a 21% probability of claiming the wild card. Let us all now pause and register our collective shock at the prospect of the AFC West sending two teams to the playoffs.

The Jets don't quite control their destiny—if they win out, they'd be almost certain to get the wild card, but not quite. (For all you tiebreaker nerds out there, if the Jets and Bengals both win out, the final wild card team would be determined by the strength-of-victory tiebreaker, which the Jets have a greater than 99% probability of winning.)

To state the obvious, if the Jets lose this game, they can finish no better than 9-7, and given the various tiebreaker scenarios it may not be so easy for the Jets to get into the playoffs with nine wins. Thus if the Jets lose, their playoff probability drops to just 19%. Even if they followed up with a win in Miami, they would still have only a 44% probability of making the postseason. It is also possible, though extremely unlikely, for the Jets to lose both their remaining games and still manage to stumble into the playoffs at 8-8.

News & Notes

• It bears noting that the #6 spot could provide an easier road through the playoffs this year in the AFC, with the winner probably opening the postseason against a diminished Texans team while the #4 seed will have to play either the Steelers or the Ravens. (That said, the #4 seed also comes with home-field advantage, so it may be a wash.)
• The tables put the probability at 97% that the AFC Champion will be one of Baltimore, New England, Pittsburgh, and Houston. But between Houston's quarterback troubles, Baltimore's at-times erratic play, and Ben Roethlisberger's hobbled ankle, the AFC could be more wide open than the numbers suggest.
• If you're the Steelers, do you rest Ben Roethlisberger? The Steelers have already clinched, and if they enter as a wild card they'll play the #4 seed—almost certainly the winner of the West. Overall, if the Steelers win their next two games, they have a 38% probability of advancing to the AFC Championship Game. If they lose their next two, this drops to 27%. Tough call.
• I can't decide what's more surprising: the 80% probability that either Green Bay, New Orleans, or San Francisco will make it to the Super Bowl or the 20% probability that none of them will.

The probabilities below are the result of simulating the season 50,000 times using the game-win probabilities from the team efficiency model. They may not add up to 100 (in percent form) due to rounding. Enjoy.

AFC EAST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NE	11-3	12.5	100	0	0	0
NYJ	8-6	8.9	0	100	0	0
MIA	5-9	5.8	0	0	69	31
BUF	5-9	5.9	0	0	31	69
AFC NORTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
BAL	10-4	11.3	60	40	0	0
PIT	10-4	11.7	40	60	0	0
CIN	8-6	9.1	0	0	100	0
CLE	4-10	4.4	0	0	0	100
AFC SOUTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
HOU	10-4	11.7	100	0	0	0
TEN	7-7	7.9	0	100	0	0
JAC	4-10	4.9	0	0	100	0
IND	1-13	1.5	0	0	0	100
AFC WEST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DEN	8-6	9.0	77	20	4	0
OAK	7-7	8.1	12	37	33	18
SD	7-7	7.9	4	38	35	23
KC	6-8	6.8	8	6	28	59
NFC EAST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DAL	8-6	9.0	56	25	19	0
NYG	7-7	8.1	35	40	24	2
PHI	6-8	7.2	9	32	45	14
WAS	5-9	6.0	0	4	12	84
NFC NORTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
GB	13-1	14.4	100	0	0	0
DET	9-5	9.9	0	96	4	0
CHI	7-7	7.9	0	4	96	0
MIN	2-12	2.6	0	0	0	100
NFC SOUTH
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NO	11-3	12.5	95	5	0	0
ATL	9-5	10.1	5	95	0	0
CAR	5-9	5.9	0	0	76	24
TB	4-10	4.5	0	0	24	76
NFC WEST
Team	Rec	Wins	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SF	11-3	12.2	100	0	0	0
SEA	7-7	7.9	0	59	41	0
ARI	7-7	7.9	0	41	59	0
STL	2-12	2.5	0	0	0	100

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
NE	63	13	24	0	0	0	100
HOU	27	28	44	1	0	0	100
BAL	6	42	12	0	40	0	100
DEN	0	0	1	76	0	3	79
PIT	4	17	19	0	60	0	100
NYJ	0	0	0	0	0	38	38
CIN	0	0	0	0	0	38	38
OAK	0	0	0	12	0	11	23
SD	0	0	0	4	0	7	11
KC	0	0	0	8	0	0	8
TEN	0	0	0	0	0	3	3
BUF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
IND	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
GB	98	2	0	0	0	0	100
SF	2	51	46	0	0	0	100
NO	0	46	49	0	5	0	100
DAL	0	0	0	56	0	1	58
ATL	0	0	5	0	72	18	95
DET	0	0	0	0	21	65	86
NYG	0	0	0	35	0	0	35
PHI	0	0	0	9	0	0	9
ARI	0	0	0	0	1	6	7
SEA	0	0	0	0	1	5	6
CHI	0	0	0	0	0	4	4
MIN	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
CAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
WAS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

AFC Percent Probability to Advance
Team	Division Round	Conference Game	Super Bowl	Sup Bowl Champion
HOU	92	62	39	25
NE	94	59	30	16
PIT	76	34	15	8
BAL	80	33	13	6
DEN	26	4	1	0
NYJ	8	2	1	0
OAK	8	2	1	0
CIN	9	2	0	0
SD	4	1	0	0
KC	2	0	0	0
TEN	1	0	0	0
BUF	0	0	0	0
CLE	0	0	0	0
IND	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0
MIA	0	0	0	0

NFC Percent Probability to Advance
Team	Division Round	Conference Game	Super Bowl	Sup Bowl Champion
GB	100	67	43	20
NO	84	54	27	13
SF	80	31	11	4
DAL	38	15	6	3
NYG	22	9	4	2
ATL	35	11	4	1
DET	31	10	4	1
PHI	6	2	1	0
ARI	2	0	0	0
SEA	2	0	0	0
CHI	1	0	0	0
CAR	0	0	0	0
MIN	0	0	0	0
STL	0	0	0	0
TB	0	0	0	0
WAS	0	0	0	0