Playoff Forecast - Week 12

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Last week belonged to CIN, who added 17 percentage points to their overall playoff chances. This was thanks to a chain of events almost all of which favored the Bengals. PIT, MIA, and IND all lost while CIN won big themselves.

PIT and MIA tied for the biggest overall drop at 10 percentage points due to the same combination of events.

On the NFC side, GB jumped up 16% while D ET dropped 12%.

AFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NE	92	6	2	0
NYJ	4	48	32	17
BUF	1	29	32	37
MIA	3	17	34	46
AFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
BAL	80	17	3	0
PIT	16	55	28	2
CIN	4	28	66	2
CLE	0	0	3	96
AFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
HOU	98	2	0	0
IND	2	81	17	0
TEN	0	17	77	6
JAC	0	0	6	94
AFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
DEN	100	0	0	0
SD	0	70	30	0
OAK	0	30	68	2
KC	0	0	2	98
NFC EAST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
NYG	55	33	11	1
DAL	32	40	24	4
WAS	12	24	47	16
PHI	1	3	18	78
NFC NORTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
GB	61	27	10	2
CHI	27	46	20	6
MIN	12	23	48	16
DET	0	3	21	75
NFC SOUTH
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
ATL	94	6	0	0
TB	6	80	13	1
NO	0	13	43	44
CAR	0	2	43	55
NFC WEST
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th
SF	85	15	0	0
SEA	15	79	6	1
ARI	0	4	47	49
STL	0	2	47	50

AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
HOU	78	14	5	1	2	0	100
DEN	13	54	22	10	0	0	100
NE	6	12	24	50	1	2	96
BAL	3	18	40	19	12	5	97
IND	0	1	1	1	26	21	49
PIT	0	1	7	8	27	20	63
CIN	0	0	1	2	12	16	32
NYJ	0	0	0	3	4	10	18
MIA	0	0	0	3	1	2	6
BUF	0	0	0	1	3	7	11
SD	0	0	0	0	7	9	17
TEN	0	0	0	0	3	5	8
OAK	0	0	0	0	1	3	4
CLE	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
JAC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
KC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	4th	5th	6th	Total
ATL	54	23	14	3	2	2	98
SF	28	36	18	3	10	4	98
GB	9	16	27	9	11	12	84
CHI	4	9	11	3	23	18	68
SEA	2	7	4	1	35	20	70
NYG	2	6	15	32	5	8	68
TB	0	1	2	2	7	15	27
MIN	0	1	5	5	4	9	24
DAL	0	0	2	29	1	4	37
WAS	0	0	1	12	1	3	16
DET	0	0	0	0	1	3	4
NO	0	0	0	0	0	2	2
ARI	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
PHI	0	0	0	1	0	0	1
STL	0	0	0	0	0	1	1
CAR	0	0	0	0	0	0	0