Playoff Forecast - Week 12

As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.

Last week belonged to CIN, who added 17 percentage points to their overall playoff chances. This was thanks to a chain of events almost all of which favored the Bengals. PIT, MIA, and IND all lost while CIN won big themselves.

PIT and MIA tied for the biggest overall drop at 10 percentage points due to the same combination of events.

On the NFC side, GB jumped up 16% while D ET dropped 12%.


AFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NE92620
NYJ4483217
BUF1293237
MIA3173446
AFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
BAL801730
PIT1655282
CIN428662
CLE00396
AFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
HOU98200
IND281170
TEN017776
JAC00694
AFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
DEN100000
SD070300
OAK030682
KC00298
NFC EAST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
NYG5533111
DAL3240244
WAS12244716
PHI131878
NFC NORTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
GB6127102
CHI2746206
MIN12234816
DET032175
NFC SOUTH
Team1st2nd3rd4th
ATL94600
TB680131
NO0134344
CAR024355
NFC WEST
Team1st2nd3rd4th
SF851500
SEA157961
ARI044749
STL024750


AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
HOU78145120100
DEN1354221000100
NE61224501296
BAL318401912597
IND0111262149
PIT0178272063
CIN0012121632
NYJ000341018
MIA0003126
BUF00013711
SD00007917
TEN0000358
OAK0000134
CLE0000000
JAC0000000
KC0000000
NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding
Team1st2nd3rd4th5th6thTotal
ATL54231432298
SF283618310498
GB916279111284
CHI49113231868
SEA2741352070
NYG2615325868
TB012271527
MIN01554924
DAL002291437
WAS001121316
DET0000134
NO0000022
ARI0000011
PHI0001001
STL0000011
CAR0000000

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