The Texans have the inside track in the AFC and the Falcons have it in the NFC. No surprise there. The AFC South, AFC West, NFC South and NFC West appear to be locks for the Texans, Broncos, Falcons, and 49ers. The one counter-intuitive projection is that Baltimore is not the favorite in the AFC North despite having a full game lead on Pittsburgh.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 51 | 34 | 12 | 3 |
 MIA | 42 | 38 | 15 | 5 |
 NYJ | 4 | 19 | 48 | 28 |
 BUF | 2 | 9 | 25 | 64 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 PIT | 53 | 34 | 10 | 3 |
 BAL | 41 | 42 | 13 | 3 |
 CIN | 5 | 19 | 54 | 23 |
 CLE | 1 | 5 | 23 | 71 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 HOU | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 IND | 2 | 71 | 23 | 4 |
 TEN | 0 | 23 | 57 | 20 |
 JAC | 0 | 4 | 20 | 76 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 DEN | 95 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
 OAK | 3 | 58 | 37 | 1 |
 SD | 1 | 37 | 59 | 3 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 4 | 96 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NYG | 80 | 16 | 3 | 1 |
 DAL | 11 | 44 | 29 | 16 |
 PHI | 6 | 24 | 37 | 33 |
 WAS | 3 | 16 | 31 | 51 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CHI | 50 | 28 | 15 | 7 |
 GB | 28 | 32 | 24 | 17 |
 MIN | 15 | 25 | 33 | 28 |
 DET | 7 | 16 | 28 | 49 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ATL | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 TB | 1 | 50 | 36 | 13 |
 CAR | 0 | 42 | 44 | 15 |
 NO | 0 | 7 | 20 | 73 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SF | 93 | 6 | 1 | 0 |
 SEA | 5 | 62 | 24 | 10 |
 STL | 1 | 16 | 39 | 44 |
 ARI | 1 | 17 | 37 | 46 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| HOU | 77 | 14 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100 |
| DEN | 12 | 44 | 25 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 98 |
| NE | 5 | 13 | 19 | 15 | 15 | 12 | 78 |
| MIA | 2 | 13 | 18 | 9 | 20 | 12 | 75 |
| BAL | 1 | 8 | 13 | 19 | 11 | 10 | 63 |
| PIT | 1 | 6 | 15 | 31 | 7 | 9 | 69 |
| IND | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 12 | 11 | 25 |
| OAK | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 14 | 30 |
| CIN | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 13 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 16 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 18 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| ATL | 49 | 23 | 15 | 11 | 0 | 0 | 99 |
| SF | 24 | 31 | 23 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 97 |
| NYG | 17 | 23 | 24 | 17 | 7 | 5 | 93 |
| CHI | 8 | 12 | 16 | 15 | 16 | 11 | 78 |
| GB | 1 | 4 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 13 | 55 |
| MIN | 0 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 33 |
| DAL | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 12 | 32 |
| SEA | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 23 | 16 | 43 |
| DET | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 10 | 25 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 10 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 6 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Am I reading this correctly? Of course the Texans are in the drivers seat.... But a 100% chance of making the playoffs? In fact a 100% chance of a #5 or better seeding?
Hi Ken --
Brian rounds numbers to the nearest whole percent. You can see the insignificant figures to the right of the decimal in the tables on my blog.
http://files.nfl-forecast.com/
One implicit assumption is that the teams will maintain their current composition. In other words, there won't be any significant injuries. Of course that's a false assumption. The Texans lost Schaub last season and it was a major set back. You can read these numbers to say, "If the teams continue to play at their level, these are their chances..."
Ah... I see. Thanks for the explanations .
I'm curious if you could answer this question for me. I was curious watching the Bama/LSU game when there was a holding penalty on Bama. It would have been 4th and 10 at LSU 40 yard line meaning a punt for Bama or Les Miles could have accepted the penalty and had a 3rd and 31 at the Bama 39 yardline. At what point do you accept the penalty and hope for better field position. The score at the time was 3-0 LSU if that matters... Has there been math done on it already?
Appreciate you taking the time answering.
@thegoodgrind18:
I'm not Brian, but I say you make them punt. Too many chances to have a defensive penalty to keep a drive alive. At that point in the game, and a game that should be low-scoring (even though it wasn't as low-scoring as most saw it), I say you want the ball. The most likely scenario is that ALA picks up some yardage, bringing up 4th & 15-20, and you get the ball back at near the same point as the punt would if you DIDN'T accept the penalty.
@ these published playoff odds: I MUST assume that this was published before last night's game, and that the Saints' odds would be better than what the table says. I mean, the Saints are tied for 2nd IN THEIR OWN DIVISION (and at the moment, have the tiebreaker over Tampa). How is it that CAR, for example, has a better chance than the Saints??? (In other divisions, 4th place teams might have a better shot at the playoffs by winning the division--CAR & NOR have the same division, and the Saints are 1 game closer + have 2 chances to beat ATL--CAR has only 1 such chance. If ATL beats CAR, they have no chance of winning the division [lose tiebreaker if CAR wins out and ATL loses out]. If ATL beats the Saints this Sunday, there is still a mathematical chance (ATL 9-0, NOR 3-6) for NOR to finish ahead. If NOR wins, then the records are ATL 8-1, NOR 4-5 --not great chances, but better than CAR's.)
Based on this, I would advise you, Brian, to run the table AFTER the MNF game. Even I as a Saints fan have little expectation of a playoff berth--maybe 10% chance. But this model giving them a (rounded) 0% chance is off, seeing the would have the tiebreaker over PHI & TB, and have a lead over CAR.
Replying to myself--I made one big error in that post--TB is 4-4. For some strange reason, I was thinking that they are 3-5 like my Saints.
Anyway, one of the thrusts of my post would still be "How on earth can a team in the same division with a worse W/L record have a (slightly) better chance to make the playoffs?? [Esp. considering that the NFL doesn't consider rating systems like Brian's & DVOA.]