As always, these numbers come courtesy of Chris Cox at NFL-forecast.com and are generated with the help of his NFL-Forecast software app, which uses the win probabilities generated by the team efficiency model to create a Monte Carlo season simulation. And if you don't buy the game probabilities from Advanced NFL Stats, you can tweak them as much as you like to generate your own playoff projections. I encourage everyone to download the app and test out your own scenarios.
| AFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NE | 95 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
 MIA | 5 | 41 | 32 | 22 |
 NYJ | 0 | 30 | 40 | 30 |
 BUF | 0 | 24 | 28 | 48 |
| AFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 BAL | 92 | 7 | 1 | 0 |
 CIN | 4 | 47 | 48 | 1 |
 PIT | 4 | 46 | 47 | 3 |
 CLE | 0 | 0 | 4 | 95 |
| AFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 HOU | 98 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
 IND | 2 | 92 | 7 | 0 |
 TEN | 0 | 6 | 82 | 11 |
 JAC | 0 | 0 | 11 | 89 |
| AFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 DEN | 100 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
 SD | 0 | 65 | 35 | 0 |
 OAK | 0 | 35 | 63 | 2 |
 KC | 0 | 0 | 2 | 98 |
| NFC EAST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 NYG | 72 | 22 | 6 | 0 |
 WAS | 19 | 46 | 31 | 4 |
 DAL | 9 | 31 | 54 | 6 |
 PHI | 0 | 1 | 9 | 90 |
| NFC NORTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 CHI | 47 | 43 | 8 | 1 |
 GB | 47 | 37 | 14 | 2 |
 MIN | 6 | 18 | 60 | 16 |
 DET | 0 | 1 | 17 | 82 |
| NFC SOUTH | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 ATL | 99 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
 TB | 1 | 84 | 13 | 2 |
 CAR | 0 | 4 | 55 | 41 |
 NO | 0 | 11 | 31 | 57 |
| NFC WEST | ||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th |
 SF | 96 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
 SEA | 4 | 84 | 10 | 2 |
 STL | 0 | 10 | 70 | 21 |
 ARI | 0 | 2 | 20 | 77 |
| AFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding/td> | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| HOU | 82 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 100 |
| DEN | 7 | 50 | 26 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| NE | 7 | 15 | 25 | 48 | 2 | 2 | 98 |
| BAL | 3 | 24 | 41 | 24 | 6 | 2 | 100 |
| IND | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 46 | 26 | 74 |
| PIT | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 23 | 45 |
| CIN | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 21 | 25 | 49 |
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 14 |
| NYJ | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| BUF | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| TEN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| OAK | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| JAC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| KC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NFC Percent Probability Playoff Seeding | |||||||
| Team | 1st | 2nd | 3rd | 4th | 5th | 6th | Total |
| ATL | 66 | 21 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 100 |
| SF | 25 | 50 | 17 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 100 |
| CHI | 5 | 12 | 21 | 9 | 26 | 14 | 87 |
| NYG | 2 | 8 | 24 | 38 | 6 | 8 | 86 |
| GB | 2 | 7 | 23 | 15 | 20 | 14 | 80 |
| SEA | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 31 | 23 | 58 |
| WAS | 0 | 0 | 2 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 12 | 18 |
| DAL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
| STL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| DET | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| NO | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| ARI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CAR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Could you check whether the wins for Saints and Raiders are correct? I think, in the software, it is falsely recorded as a Raiders win in week 11, because the minimum possible wins for the Saints is 4, although they already have 5 wins.
Vice versa the minimum for the Raiders is 4, although they currently only have 3 wins.
The program does have the Week 11 game between Oak and NO reversed. You can see that by checking "show all games" instead of "show only unplayed games". I emailed Chris Cox about the error.
So you're saying there's a chance!!!
Okay, it is fixed on nfl-forecast.com. Sorry about that.